AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN, NASDAQ:AZN) drew Citi's backing after tozorakimab trial results, supporting an upside case of at least $7 billion in peak sales, roughly twice consensus.
Behind the bullish call, phase III data presented at the European Respiratory Society meeting showed tozorakimab reduced flare-ups in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
Specifically, the treatment met its primary endpoint in former smokers, reducing exacerbations by 29% to 34%, versus 29% to 30% across former and current smokers combined.
Across baseline eosinophil counts, reductions reached 43% at 300 cells per microlitre or above, 25% between 150 and 300, and 23% below 150.
Against rivals, the bank judged results in the highest eosinophil group stronger than Dupixent and Nucala, based on comparisons across separate trials.
On valuation, the $7 billion upside case compares with consensus of $3.7 billion and implies 5% upside to Citi's discounted cash flow valuation.
In the wider pipeline, this potential gain outweighs the combined 4.3% downside associated with SERENA-4 and AVANZAR, the bank says.
Beyond those comparisons, Citi, restating its 'buy' on the stock, sees scope for broad use across patient groups without eosinophil testing, underpinning the drugmaker's potential sales opportunity.
