Traders on Kalshi, the US-regulated prediction market exchange, are placing strong odds on the Nasdaq-100 technology index closing the year well above current levels, with contracts implying a better-than-even chance of a significant year-end rally.
Kalshi currently shows a 73% chance that the Nasdaq-100 will finish 2026 at or above 30,000.
The odds of a finish above 31,000 stand at 68%, while the probability of a close above 32,000 falls to 41%, suggesting traders see that level as roughly a coin flip.
Unlike traditional betting, where odds are set by a bookmaker, prediction markets rely on the wisdom of crowds, with prices moving as participants trade and reflect collective expectations.
On Kalshi, contracts are priced between one cent and 99 cents, with the price representing the implied probability of the outcome occurring.
A contract priced at 68 cents implies a 68% chance of the event resolving in favour of the "yes" holder, who receives $1 on settlement if correct.
The Nasdaq-100 hit a record high after hours on Monday, with the index rallying 1%, driven by Nvidia, which rose 2% to $238.90 and pushed its market capitalisation close to $6 trillion.
The Kalshi contracts settle on 31 December, meaning traders are betting on where the index closes out the year rather than any near-term move.
