Nvidia, the US chipmaker at the centre of the artificial intelligence hardware boom, hit a new all-time high of $240.10 on Monday, with its market capitalisation reaching $5.76 trillion.
And prediction market traders are increasingly betting it will cross $6 trillion before the year is out. Probably, much sooner.
Polymarket currently prices a combined 41% chance that Nvidia finishes 2026 with a market cap above $6 trillion, with a 21% probability of a $6 trillion to $6.5 trillion year-end close and a 20% chance of finishing above $6.5 trillion.
With the stock trading at $241.55 in pre-market deals on Tuesday, up a further 1.1%, that milestone looks closer than ever.
Nvidia designs graphics processing units (GPUs) and the associated networking systems that power AI data centres, making it the primary beneficiary of the global AI infrastructure build-out.
In its second-quarter results in August, the company reported revenue of $96.2 billion, beating Wall Street expectations, and guided for third-quarter sales of between $105.8 billion and $110.1 billion.
Chief executive Jensen Huang has become one of the industry's most recognisable figures, regularly appearing alongside President Trump at technology events and travelling the world to meet foreign leaders.
Despite the bullish sentiment, questions persist about the sustainability of the AI trade, including concerns over so-called circular investing, where Nvidia backs customers who then use the proceeds to buy more of its chips.
Growing competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and custom silicon developed by cloud giants Amazon and Google also looms as a longer-term risk to its dominance.
