HSBC PLC (LON:HSBA) is the last of the big four banks to report with more uncertainty over the outcome than for its UK-centric rivals.
The bull story is HSBC’s gearing to rate rises - sensitivity is the highest for 15 years says Deutsche Bank analysts - but the speed/scale of the hikes is now open to debate after some patchy US economic data.
The bank is expected to do well in emerging economies, but political uncertainty surrounding European elections, the impact of a stronger dollar against currencies are other unknowns.
Litigation is also as thorny an issue for HSBC as its rivals.
The group is heading to court to appeal a €33.5mln penalty by the European Commission in December 2016 for allegedly colluding with other banks to rig Euribor, a key financial benchmark, between September 2005 and May 2008.
Shell - Thursday
Cash flow metrics will be the focus for investors when Royal Dutch Shell Plc (LON:RDSB) releases its first quarter financial results on Thursday May 4, so says UBS.
“As always, Shell will be a major focus for investors as they track the development of cashflow generation.
“We expect continued progress in that regard although the absence of production from Pearl GTL is expected to hold back the earnings contribution from the Integrated Gas business.”
UBS also noted that Shell is usually ‘seasonal’ in its approach to booking costs, and anticipates Q1 2017 to show less spending compared to the last three months of 2016.
The bank added: “we'd expect sequential earnings to benefit from that effect in the two Upstream segments, in addition to the lagged recovery in international gas prices in IG.”
Just Eat still piling on the pounds
Takeaway app group Just Eat (LON:JE.) should see order growth of 30%, driven by fast international markets growth of 47% and resilient UK at 21% says Deutsche Bank.
Tailwind behind British Airways
British Airways owner IAG (LON:ICE) reports first quarter results on 5 May and should see underlying earnings of €179mln says Deutsche Bank.
“In our view IAG remains the best positioned legacy carrier group in Europe and should see a strong year of earnings.”
Watch for pricing comments as there has been a clear industry-wide improvement in pricing but oil prices have also risen sharply.
Good and bad at Sainsbury's and Morrisons
After market leader Tesco PLC (LON:TSCO) raised margin worries with its annual results earlier this month, updates from rivals J Sainsbury plc (LON:SBRY) and William Morrison Supermarkets PLC (LON:MRW) will be closely-eyed for any further evidence of deteriorating conditions in the grocery sector.
For the full year, analysts at Deutsche Bank expect Sainsbury to report headline pretax profits of £592mln, up marginally from the £587mln reported a year earlier, as core retail margins – excluding Argos – decline by 30 basis points to 3.0%.
In a preview, the Deutsche Bank analysts said: “While we believe that the Argos acquisition will be a success and that the core business will not experience a major margin reset … we expect mild earnings downgrades in 17E due to continued tough price competition. “
Morrison’s sales growth to continue
In its results for the year to January 29 2017, Morrison’s reported its first annual profit and like-for-like (LFL) sales growth since 2012, with its fourth quarter LFL sales up 2.5%, after a 2.9% rise over Christmas, and a first-quarter trading update due on Thursday should also please.
READ: Morrison’s reports first profit growth in five years
‘House’ broker Shore Capital expects the strong growth to continue for the first-quarter of the current year, albeit at a slightly slower rate, with its analysts forecasting LFL sales growth in a range of 1.75%-2.00%, which would mark a sixth straight quarter of gains.
In a preview note, the ShoreCap analysts said that, despite the toughening comparatives and a slower UK grocery market, flagged up by Tesco’s boss Dave Lewis at the supermarket leader’s full-year results on April 12, they believe that Morrison’s has “sustained positive momentum into the new financial year.”
Announcements due
Monday 1 May
Markets closed
Tuesday 2 May
Trading Statement: Just Eat (LON:JE.)
Interims: Oxford Instruments PLC (LON:OXIG); Shire Plc (LON:SHP); Aberdeen Asset Management PLC (LON:ADN) BP PLC (LON: BP.) AGM / EGM: Lighthouse Group PLC (LON:LGT); Randgold Resources Ltd (LON:RRS); Howden Joinery Group PLC (LON:HWDN); Capital & Regional PLC (LON:CAL)
Wednesday 3 May
Trading Statement: Wetherspoon (J D) PLC (LON:JDW); Paddy Power Betfair (LON:PPB); International Personal Finance PLC (LON:IPF); Intu Properties (LON:INTU); esure Group plc (LON:ESUR); Carillion PLC (LON:CLLN); Direct Line Insurance Group PLC (LON:DLG) Interim Result: Livanova Plc (LON:LIVN); Sage Group (The) PLC (LON:SGE); Imperial Brands Plc (LON:IMB); Indivior Plc (LON:INDV); Focusrite plc (LON:TUNE) AGM/EGM: Ocado Group Plc (LON:OCDO); Standard Chartered PLC (LON:STAN); Virgin Money Holdings UK Plc (LON:VM.); The Renewables Infrastructure Group Ltd (LON:TRIG); Secure Trust Bank PLC (STB); Lancashire Holdings Ltd (LON:LRE) Finals: Sainsbury (J) PLC (LON:SBRY), Osirium Technologies Plc (LON:OSI); Inspiration Healthcare Group (LON:IHC)
Thursday 4 May
Interim: Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA); Lancashire Holdings Ltd (LON:LRE); HSBC Holdings PLC (LON:HSBA); Inmarsat Plc (LON:ISAT) Trading statement: Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC (LON:MRW); Next Plc (LON:NXT); RSA Insurance Group PLC (LON:RSA); Ladbrokes Coral Group PLC (LON:LCL); ConvaTec Group PLC (LON:CTEC); IMI PLC (LON:IMI); G4S PLC (LON:GFS); Fisher (James) & Sons PLC (LON:FSJ) AGM/EGM: Ladbrokes Coral Group PLC (LON:LAD); Trinity Mirror PLC (LON:TNI); Computacenter PLC (LON:CCC); Rolls-Royce Group PLC (LON:RR.); Gresham Computing plc (LON:GHT); Moneysupermarket.com Group PLC (LON:MONY); GlaxoSmithKline plc (LON:GSK)
Friday 5 May
Interims: McCarthy Stone Plc (LON:MCS); Smurfit Kappa Group PLC (LON:SKG), International Consolidated Airlines Group (LON:IAG); Millennium & Copthorne Hotels PLC (LON:MLC) AGM/EGM: Clarke (T) PLC (LON:CTO); InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (LON:IHG); FBD Holdings PLC (LON:FBH); Smurfit Kappa Group PLC (LON:SKG); Pearson PLC (LON:PSON); Man Group PLC (LON:EMG) Trading Statement: Smith & Nephew PLC (LON:SN.); InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (LON:IHG); BBA Aviation PLC (LON:BBA); Pearson PLC (LON:PSON)