Company results in the second week of March take a back-seat to the Budget speech.
Public finances remain under pressure – it was ever thus – so the scope for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, to be generous is limited.
Besides which, it is still early enough in this parliament for the finance minister to put in some unpopular but necessary measures before the pre-election give-away period starts.
On the plus side, economists seem united in the belief that public sector net borrowing excluding banks could well be more than £10bn lower than looked likely when the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) made its forecast of a requirement of £68.2bn last year at the time of the Autumn Statement.
“Admittedly, there are factors that could weigh down on the public finances in February and March, thereby limiting the overall improvement. Markedly higher inflation is pushing up government costs while higher interest rates are pushing up debt servicing costs,” cautions Dr Howard Archer, the widely-quoted chief European and UK economist at IHS Markit.
“Furthermore, there was a surge in stamp duty receipts in the first quarter of 2016 as housing market activity was lifted by buy-to-let buyers and second home buyers rushing to beat a three percentage point rise in the stamp duty rate for those sectors. Also it needs to be borne in mind that the February/January public finance data can be significantly influenced if tax receipts come in later or earlier compared to a year earlier. Even so, a marked undershoot of the 2016/17 target does look probable,” Dr Archer concludes.
IHS's crystal ball gazer thinks Hammond will be wary of using the extra wiggle room this better-than-expected outcome appears to give him.
“The Chancellor will likely be keen to keep as much fiscal ammunition as possible up as his sleeve – due to the major uncertainties and downside risks that the economy faces very possibly for a prolonged period,” Dr Archer said.
Those risks include the Brexit process and recent data that suggests consumers are starting to rein in their spending as their purchasing power is squeezed by higher inflation.
Deutsche Bank, meanwhile, has taken a look at what the Budget will have in store for house builders, and the conclusion seems to be: not much.
As the Deutsche team points out, the builders have historically featured heavily in previous Budgets as first the Coalition and then the Tories have looked at methods of tackling the lack of affordable housing.
In fact, the problems and attempts to right the market go back even further.
This time around, the focus is likely to be elsewhere as we have just recently seen the publication of the Housing White Paper, which provides a whole slew of new initiatives, the German bank points out.
There have been the usual industry calls to cut Stamp Duty in order to kick start activity, which are likely to be resisted, Deutsche says.
If Hammond does surprise and opts to reduce the tax paid on purchasing a new home then this would benefit London-focused Berkeley (LON:BKY) most and to a lesser extent the volume builders.
A possibility, according to the Deutsche research team, but only a faint one, is that Hammond may provide some sort of Stamp Duty relief for those downsizing in order to encourage the process and stimulate the wider market.
Hammond will probably want to avoid treading on the toes of Lord Chancellor Liz Truss, who recently rocked the car insurance sector by altering the Ogden actuarial discount rate used by courts in England and Wales to calculate personal injury damages awards.
Direct Line, which reports finals on Tuesday, will have no such compunction and is likely to take the opportunity to lobby for a rethink.
As for the numbers, the market expects revenue in 2016 will have dipped a bit to £3.07bn from £3.11bn in 2015.
Analysts have pencilled in £528.0mln for headline pre-tax profit, versus £507.5mln in 2015; the full-year pay-out is seen rising to 32.21p, which includes a previously announced 10p a share special dividend, from 13.8p the year before.
The Ogden discount rate decision has muddied the waters, however.
“Direct Line had a large exposure to Ogden, with an estimated charge of £215 to £230m, c4% of market cap. While the company has increased its reinsurance coverage in recent years, the company has a lot of exposure from when it was 30% of the market with very high reinsurance attachment points,” notes Alan Devlin at Barclays.
Before the Lord Chancellor stuck her oar in, Direct Line had hinted another special divi might be unveiled at the time of the full-year results; Barclays no longer thinks that is on the cards.
On Wednesday, another car insurer, Admiral, hoves into view.
Its revenue is seen rising to £2.08bn from £1.13bn the year before, feeding through to a rise in pre-tax profit to £381.6mln from £368.7mln the year before.
On Friday, esure completes the triumvirate of disgruntled car insurers.
Significant announcements expected
Monday
Finals: Devro PLC (LON:DVO), Informa PLC (LON:INF), Irish Continental Group PLC (LON:ICGC), Synthomer (LON:SYNT), Ultra Electronics Holdings PLC (LON:ULE)
Tuesday
Finals: Aggreko PLC (LON:AGK), Apax Global Alpha Ltd (LON:APAX), Autins Group PLC (LON:AUTG), Direct Line Insurance Group PLC (LON:DLG) , Escher Group (LON:ESCH), Headlam Group PLC (LON:HEAD), Ibstock Plc (LON:IBST), Intertek Group PLC (LON:ITRK), John Laing Group PLC (LON:JLG), Just Eat (LON:JE.), LSL Property Services PLC (LON:LSL) Paddy Power Betfair (LON:PPB), SDL Plc (LON:SDL), Servelec Group (LON:SERV), Shawbrook Group PLC (LON:SHAW), Tritax Big Box Reit PLC (LON:BBOX), Worldpay Group PLC (LON:WPG), XLMedia PLC (LON:XLM)
Interims: Ashtead Group PLC (LON:AHT), St Ives PLC (LON:SIV)
Wednesday
Finals: Admiral Group PLC (LON:ADM), Cairn Energy PLC (LON:CNE), CLS Holdings PLC (LON:CLI), Dignity PLC (LON:DTY), Foxtons Group PLC (LON:FOXT), G4S PLC (LON:GFS), Hill & Smith Holdings PLC (LON:HILS), Legal & General Group PLC (LON:LGEN), Lookers PLC (LON:LOOK), Loopup Group PLC (LON:LOOP) , NMC Health plc (LON:NMC), PageGroup PLC (LON:PAGE) , Restaurant Group (The) PLC (LON:RTN), Stock Spirits Group (LON:STCK), Tyman (LON:TYMN), WANdisco (LON:WAND), XP Power Ltd (LON:XPP)
Interims: Ceres Power Holdings PLC (LON:CWR)
Thursday
Finals: Avacta Group Plc (LON:AVCT), Cairn Homes PLC (LON:CRN), Capital & Regional PLC (LON:CAL), Cineworld PLC (LON:CINE), Countrywide PLC (LON:CWD), Domino's Pizza Group PLC (LON:DOM), DS Smith PLC (LON:SMDS), Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC (LON:MRW), Old Mutual Group PLC (LON:OML), Ophir Energy (LON:OPHR), Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO), Restore Plc (LON:RST), Secure Income Reit PLC (LON:SIR), Spirax-Sarco Engineering PLC (LON:SPX)
Friday
Finals: esure Group PLC (LON:ESUR), JD Wetherspoon PLC (LON:JDW)
Interims: JRP Group PLC (LON:JRP)