Gemfields Group Limited (AIM:GEM) retained Panmure Liberum’s backing after an emerald auction sellout, although the broker’s higher revenue assumption barely shifted its earnings forecast.
The house maintained its 'buy' rating and unchanged 7.5p price target for the gemstone miner.
Yet the bullish call appeared at odds with the share price movement, with the stock down 13% to 2.51p after Gemfields' latest auction.
Its first commercial-quality emerald auction since December 2025 generated $29.6 million, selling all 44 lots comprising more than three million carats.
On pricing, the analysts described the $9.72 average per carat as their highest observed since the mine started, while noting quality differences complicate auction comparisons.
Following the sale, the broker raised its financial year 2026 commercial-quality emerald revenue assumption from roughly $28 million to $29.6 million, reflecting the auction proceeds.
Even so, Panmure's updated financial model forecasts 2026 EBITDA of $72.5 million, close to the $72.4 million estimate previously flagged in the report.
Supporting the upbeat view, Gemfields reported intense viewing activity in Jaipur and positive customer feedback on both emerald quality and the composition of auction lots.
By comparison, May’s higher-quality emerald auction disappointed, raising $26.8 million, with Gemfields reporting stable demand for those stones but market caution amid geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Interim results arrive on 25 September, followed by October’s ruby auction, for which the broker has left its assumptions unchanged.
