Berenberg has upgraded Antofagasta to buy from hold, arguing that last week's slide in copper prices has left the Chilean miner's shares looking too cheap to ignore.
The German bank kept its price target at 4,400p, implying about 16% upside from the closing price of 3,790p on 11 September.
Antofagasta, a FTSE 100 copper producer with four mines in Chile, had drifted lower as the copper price retreated from recent highs.
Berenberg said the metal had pushed towards $15,000 a tonne in recent trading on supply disruption, tight physical markets and an element of investor speculation, before slipping back to around $14,200.
Much of that speculation centres on the prospect of fresh US tariffs on copper imports, which have driven American inventories to record levels.
Berenberg does not expect those tariffs to materialise, arguing the inflationary hit to the US economy would be too damaging.
The analysts framed the resulting sell-off as an opportunity rather than a warning.
They pointed to a strong growth pipeline as the core of the investment case.
Berenberg expects Antofagasta to lift copper output by 27% to 818,000 tonnes by 2028, up from 646,000 tonnes in 2026.
That growth rests on higher ore grades at the Los Pelambres mine and rising volumes from the new second concentrator at Centinela, both in Chile.
By-products in the form of molybdenum and gold should keep costs in check and push the company down the cost curve, the analysts said.
They also expect free cash flow to jump as spending on new projects rolls off, rising from about $700 million in 2026 to $3.1 billion in 2027, a free cash flow yield of 6.2%.
The bank forecasts earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation margins of between 66% and 68%.
Berenberg said the volume growth expected over 2027 and 2028 should drive a rerating of the shares, which trade on 2.37 times net asset value and 7.8 times forecast 2027 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.
The upgrade caps a volatile year for the bank's stance on the stock.
Berenberg had cut Antofagasta to hold in April, before lifting its target to 4,400p in June while staying on the sidelines, and has now returned to a buy call.
The note carried the usual caveats.
Weaker copper or gold prices, a stronger Chilean peso, or operational problems such as strikes and water shortages could all knock the valuation.
The analysis was led by Richard Hatch, alongside colleagues Jasper Mainwaring, Anton Viljoen and Tilemachos Efthyvoulou.
