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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Growth stocks coverage continues on proactiveinvestors.com
Go to Proactive UK
The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Growth stocks coverage continues on .com
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Growth stocks coverage continues on .com
Go to Proactive UK

Mining

Glencore PLC View profile

UBS upgrades Glencore to buy, citing five reasons to be positive

A worker in a yellow safety jacket and white hard hat stands on a railing, speaking into a radio while overseeing coal being loaded into a freight train. The background features a — Credit: Courtesy of Glencore
Courtesy of Glencore

Glencore PLC won an upgrade to 'buy' from 'neutral' at UBS, which lifted its price target to 650p from 620p.

That implies upside of around 18% from Thursday's close of 549p.

Shares in the FTSE 100 miner and commodities trader rose 3% to 565.4p on Friday.

The stock had fallen about 15% from recent highs on worries over the economy, coal prices and a legal dispute with Radiant World.

Analyst Myles Allsop said the risk-reward balance now looks attractive and set out five reasons for optimism.

First, Glencore's trading arm is performing strongly, with first-half operating profit of US$3.3 billion, its second-best result ever.

UBS now expects the division to earn US$6.2 billion this year, up from US$5.5 billion, and US$4.3 billion in 2027, up from US$3 billion.

Second, the prices of Glencore's key commodities are up about 20% this year, with thermal coal, steelmaking coal and zinc all around 30% higher.

Third, the broker expects Glencore's copper growth plans to become clearer over the next year, starting with higher output at its Collahuasi mine in Chile from the fourth quarter.

Fourth, asset sales could raise more than US$10 billion.

These include a potential 40% stake sale in its Congolese copper assets to a US-backed consortium, its 17% holding in Bunge and its 70% stake in Kazakh zinc miner Kazzinc.

Fifth, UBS expects shareholder returns to step up, with a US$1.6 billion base dividend and a US$2.5 billion top-up due with full-year results in February.

It sees scope for more than US$5 billion of extra returns alongside half-year results in 2027 if disposals complete.

At current prices, UBS estimates Glencore could generate about US$10 billion of free cash flow in 2027, an 11% yield.

A secondary listing in Australia on 14 October could also help, given the higher valuations enjoyed by copper-exposed miners there.

On Radiant World, which filed a US$2 billion claim this month, Glencore has said the allegations are meritless and its exposure is below US$500 million.

UBS noted the more than US$10 billion wiped off Glencore's market value far exceeds the potential cost of the dispute.

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