Bitcoin has burst back above $80,000 for the first time in months, clearing its May highs and dragging the wider crypto market up with it.
The jump caps a turnaround for a coin that spent much of the year grinding sideways, trading in the low $63,000s as recently as mid-August.
At that point it was down roughly 27% on the year and nearly 49% off its all-time high of $126,080, set last October.
The rally has been fuelled by a broader return of risk appetite, as investors shrug off worries about government bond yields and the prospect of tighter US monetary policy.
Falling oil prices have helped too, easing one of the inflation pressures that had spooked markets.
The move is awkward reading for the prediction markets, where the smart money had been leaning the other way.
On Kalshi, the regulated US exchange, traders have clustered the bulk of their year-end 2026 bets in the $60,000 to $70,000 range.
The same platform briefly settled its $80,000 marker for September back on the third, when bitcoin spiked above $82,000, only to hand the gains straight back.
Rival venue Polymarket, which runs its own active year-end market on the bitcoin price, has drawn tens of millions of dollars in wagers on the question.
Whether today's break holds is the obvious question.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at trading platform IG, reckons the breakout could mark a turning point.
"It has been months since bitcoin has seen the world above $80,000," he said, arguing that markets had rediscovered a "risk-on frame of mind".
He said the timing was ideal, with bitcoin moving out of its historically weak August and September window and into a ten-month stretch that has, on average, delivered positive returns.
Beauchamp was less upbeat on the regulatory backdrop.
He said US lawmakers had "managed to fumble" the passage of the Clarity Act, the industry's hoped-for rulebook, leaving a likely turf war between the SEC and the CFTC.
That, he warned, leaves investors stuck in the middle, with little prospect of a fix before the midterms.
