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The Markets
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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Retail & consumer

Next PLC NXT View profile

Next shares suffer hangover from fourth upgrade. Brokers remain positive as they reset forecasts

The image depicts the interior of a clothing retail store featuring a vibrant display of various apparel items arranged on mannequins and clothing racks. Customers can be seen brow — Credit: Courtesy of NEXT plc
Courtesy of NEXT plc

Shares in Next fell about 3% to 14,475p on Friday as brokers digested another set of forecast-beating results that prompted the retailer to raise its profit guidance for the fourth time this year.

Next, which sells clothing and homeware through around 500 UK stores and its online platform, reported first-half full-price sales up 7.7% and pre-tax profit up 10.5% to £569 million on Thursday.

It nudged full-year profit guidance up £12 million to £1,255 million, implying growth of 8.4% on last year.

Both UBS, which rates the stock "buy" with a 16,800p target, and Panmure Liberum, also a buyer at 16,000p, kept their ratings and lifted earnings forecasts by about 1%.

The share price fall suggests investors had already banked the good news.

UBS noted that the upgrade caught the market by surprise, since the recent oil price spike and a run of upgrades, the fourth since January, had led few to expect another beat at the half-year stage.

The engine of the growth is international.

Overseas full-price sales jumped 23.9% in the half, and Next lifted its second-half international guidance sharply to 20.5% from 14%.

UBS highlighted customer data, published for the first time, showing that overseas shoppers spend and stay with Next at rates close to those of UK customers, a sign of a long runway for growth.

An international customer in their fifth year spends £298, against £292 in the UK.

Both brokers pointed to the payoff from Next's automated Elmsall 3 warehouse, which has cut wage costs per item dispatched to 31p in July, down from 39p two years earlier.

Panmure Liberum flagged the softer spots.

Next brand sales in the UK slipped, though management had expected this, and the finance arm's profit fell almost 11%.

UBS cautioned on the domestic outlook, noting Next's own warning that rising inflation, higher mortgage costs and a weak jobs market point to a slow decline in consumer spending, a risk that would worsen with further tax rises in the budget.

Next has returned £355 million to shareholders through buybacks so far this year, with £180 million still earmarked for further returns.

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