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The Markets
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The Markets
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Finance

Investec PLC INVP View profile

Investec on track to meet forecasts as South Africa outpaces UK

Investec, the Anglo-South African bank and wealth manager, said it expected first-half results in line with guidance, with a strong showing in Southern Africa offsetting a weaker performance in Britain.

The group, which is listed in both London and Johannesburg, issued the update ahead of the close of its half-year to 30 September.

It expects adjusted earnings per share of between 41.7p and 43.3p, up 3% to 7% on the same period last year.

Adjusted operating profit is forecast at between £479.2 million and £496.2 million, against £468.1 million a year earlier.

The two halves of the business are pulling in different directions.

Investec's Southern African arm is expected to lift adjusted operating profit by up to 6% in rand terms, and by as much as 14% once translated into a stronger pound.

Its UK business, which includes a stake in the wealth manager Rathbones, is forecast to come in 2% to 6% below last year.

The bank pointed to the drag from falling interest rates, which squeeze the income earned on the gap between what it charges borrowers and pays depositors, an effect known as the endowment effect.

Competition on pricing has also narrowed lending margins.

Even so, core loans rose to £37 billion at the end of August, up 6.3% on an annualised basis stripping out currency swings, with growth in both regions.

Customer deposits climbed to £46 billion.

Funds under management in the Southern African wealth business jumped almost 14% since March to £30.7 billion, helped by strong client inflows.

The credit loss ratio, a measure of loans turning bad, is expected to stay within the bank's normal range, and Investec described the overall quality of its lending as sound.

Return on equity, a key gauge of profitability, is forecast at between 13.1% and 13.5%.

The bank reaffirmed its aim of pushing returns towards the upper end of its target range by 2030.

Investec cautioned that its guidance could be knocked off course by heightened global uncertainty, singling out the continuing conflict in the Middle East as a risk to sentiment, trade, inflation and growth.

Interim results are due on 19 November.

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