Shares in Mortgage Advice Bureau dropped 19% to 399p in morning trading after it cut its profit expectations for 2026, warning that an anticipated recovery in the housing market has failed to materialise.
The property finance group now expects Adjusted profit before tax of approximately £38 million for the year ending 31 December, down from current market consensus of £43.4 million.
The downgrade comes ahead of the Group's interim results, due on 22 September 2026, for the six months ended 30 June 2026.
For that first half, MAB now expects to report Adjusted profit before tax of approximately £14.8 million, slightly ahead of the £14.6 million flagged in a July trading update.
The Group said the revised full-year outlook reflected two main factors.
Interest rate cuts and a recovery in purchase activity expected at the start of the year have not materialised, with global developments adding to uncertainty over inflation and borrowing costs.
UK purchase transactions were 3% lower in the first seven months of 2026, while mortgage approvals for house purchase fell 15% year-on-year in July, according to HMRC and Bank of England data.
Separately, delivery against the strategic plan at Fluent, the MAB's lead generation business, has been slower than anticipated after new contractual lead flows were delayed.
Fluent's expected contribution to Group profit for 2026 is now approximately £5 million lower than previously forecast, with pilot costs incurred ahead of the associated revenue.
The market remains predominantly refinance-led, with Product Transfers, where borrowers move to a new rate with their existing lender, accounting for the largest share of that activity.
Peter Brodnicki, founder and chief executive of MAB, said it was disappointing to revise the Group's expectations, but that the updated guidance still represented profit growth of approximately 5% compared with 2025.
He said the MAB was continuing to centralise administrative functions and increase automation across the customer and adviser journey, and pointed to upcoming fixed-rate mortgage maturities as a significant opportunity heading into 2027.
Peel Hunt told investors: "Although reduced guidance is clearly disappointing, the share price has already anticipated such a risk, in our view."
While keeping its 'buy' advice, the broker cut its price target to 1,000p from 1,250p.
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