IG Group Holdings, the FTSE 100 online trading platform, has cut its 2026 revenue forecast after a weaker third quarter.
Total revenue is now expected to grow by a mid-single-digit percentage, against the 10% to 15% organic growth targeted when guidance was raised in May.
That upgrade was reaffirmed as recently as July.
The EBITDA margin, a measure of operating profitability, is now expected in the low 40s as a percentage of revenue, down from the mid-40s.
That figure excludes one-off costs and expenses tied to the Underdog deal.
Third-quarter total revenue is expected to be about £240 million, 14% below the £280.1 million made a year earlier.
The shortfall came in over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives, such as contracts for difference, which customers trade directly with IG rather than on an exchange.
IG kept about 70% of client trading income as revenue, below the roughly 80% average since it overhauled its market-making in the second half of 2025.
IG expects the market-making changes to lift retention structurally over time, though with bigger swings in the short term.
OTC net trading revenue fell 18% to about £155 million, even though customer income rose 8%.
Breon Corcoran, chief executive, blamed "less supportive market conditions" and said he remained confident of meeting medium-term guidance.
That target is organic revenue growth of at least 10% a year beyond 2026, from a 2025 base of about £1.1 billion.
Customers keep coming
Customer growth held up, with organic first trades up more than 25% and active customers up about 17% year on year.
Underdog, the US fantasy sports and prediction markets business IG agreed to buy for $1.1 billion, more than doubled net revenue to about $105 million.
The fourth quarter brought in more than a third of Underdog's revenue in 2025.
The setback follows a strong first half, when total revenue rose 18% to £642.8 million.
One-off costs from moving IG's legal home to Jersey and a restructuring are expected to reach about £30 million this year.
Further detail is due on 22 October alongside a strategy update, with an investor seminar on Underdog on 8 October.
