J D Wetherspoon, the pub chain founded by Tim Martin, expects profits to recover this financial year after sales at established pubs rose 8.6% in the first nine weeks.
Pre-tax profit before one-off items is expected to match market forecasts of £74 million.
That would be 26% above the £58.6 million made in the year to 26 July, which was itself down 28% from £81.4 million.
Martin, the chairman, put the strong start partly down to exceptional weather and warned that it would "inevitably revert to the norm".
Wetherspoon has added beer gardens and outdoor seating in recent years, so hot spells now lift sales rather than dent them.
In August, its like-for-like sales rose 7.7%, against 0.8% for the industry on the NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker, a monthly survey of hospitality groups.
It was the 48th month in a row that the chain beat the tracker.
Costs outrun sales
Revenue for the year rose 5.2% to £2.24 billion, with like-for-like sales up 4.2%.
Costs rose 5.3%, slightly faster than sales, driven by an extra £46 million on wages, £31 million on repairs and £9 million on business rates.
Operating profit before one-off items fell 18% to £120.2 million, and the operating margin narrowed to 5.37% from 6.88%.
Statutory pre-tax profit fell 13% to £77.7 million, cushioned by £19.1 million of one-off gains, mostly linked to interest-rate swaps, contracts that fix borrowing costs.
Free cash flow almost doubled to £100.1 million, helped by a £33.5 million working capital inflow and lower spending on existing pubs.
The total dividend is held at 12p, and the company spent £46 million buying back 6.2% of its shares.
VAT push
Martin used the results to renew his campaign for VAT parity with supermarkets, which pay almost no VAT on food while pubs pay 20%.
Pubs and restaurants hand around 40% of their takings to the Treasury in various taxes, he argued.
The chain ended the year with 792 managed pubs and plans about 15 openings this year, plus 15 to 20 franchises.
The next trading update is due on 4 November.
