Greggs has split the City after its third-quarter update on Wednesday, with one broker turning bullish and another sticking with a sell rating.
The shares fell 3% to 1,967p.
Panmure Liberum upgraded the high street baker to 'buy' from 'hold' and raised its price target to 2,440p from 1,560p, around 24% above the current price.
Deutsche Bank lifted its target to 1,420p from 1,330p but kept its 'sell' rating, implying a fall of about 28%.
Trading picks up
Like-for-like sales at company-managed shops, which strip out new openings, rose 3.4% in the 13 weeks to 26 September.
That was a clear improvement on the first half, when hot weather hit trade in early summer.
Greggs now expects a "modestly improved" profit for 2026, having previously guided to a broadly flat outcome.
Deutsche Bank analyst Tim Barrett said the finance director had described this on the analyst call as a mid-single-digit uplift.
Factory closures
Greggs plans to close four manufacturing sites, affecting around 740 jobs.
The move will cost about £60 million but should save around £20 million a year from 2028.
Panmure Liberum's Ben Hunt said the savings gave meaningful support to forecasts for later years.
He said Greggs was moving quickly from a cycle of earnings downgrades to one of upgrades, with cash generation also set to improve.
Panmure raised its profit forecasts by about 2%, now pencilling in pre-tax profit of around £178 million for 2026.
Inflation warning
Barrett was more cautious.
He noted that the savings amount to only about 1% of the cost base.
Greggs also flagged signs of greater inflationary pressure in 2027, although it kept this year's cost inflation guidance at about 2%.
The company has opened a net 57 shops so far this year and still expects 100 to 110 net openings in 2026.
