Prediction market traders have sharply raised the odds that Anthropic releases its next Mythos-class model before the end of September, in a wager now carrying more than $233,000 of volume.
Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction exchange, prices the probability of a release by 15 September at 81%, a jump of 30 percentage points.
Contracts for 9 September moved 27 points to 71%, while the 30 September market sits at 87% and 31 October at 93%.
The near-dated bet on 31 August has faded to 35%, suggesting traders expect an announcement in the first half of next month rather than this week.
Mythos is Anthropic's designation for its most capable tier of artificial intelligence models, sitting above the Opus, Sonnet and Haiku lines used across its Claude product family.
The category is defined by strength in code reasoning, and in particular the ability to identify software vulnerabilities, a capability that has made release decisions unusually fraught.
Anthropic first restricted Mythos to a small group of cyber defenders and critical infrastructure operators under a programme called Project Glasswing, before releasing Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 on 9 June.
Fable 5 is the generally available version, carrying safeguards that divert flagged queries on cybersecurity, biology and chemistry to a less capable model.
Three days after launch, the US Commerce Department ordered the company to suspend access to both models for any foreign national, using an export control mechanism never before applied to a commercial AI model.
Anthropic disabled them worldwide, contested the directive, and had access restored on 1 July after the controls were lifted and a revised safety classifier was deployed.
That episode is the reason the current market matters beyond the usual product speculation.
A further Mythos-class release would be the first since Washington demonstrated it is willing to pull a frontier model off the shelf at three days' notice.
Adjacent Polymarket contracts show traders assigning a 96% chance to a new Opus model by 31 December, 85% for Sonnet and 61% for Haiku.
Anthropic released Claude Opus 5 on 24 July, its most recent generally available model.
The company is widely expected to pursue a stock market listing, with some reports pointing to a flotation as soon as this year.
