Citi has kept a Buy rating and £44 target price on Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO), the London-listed copper producer, despite lowering its 2026 production forecast after weather disruption at Los Pelambres.
Citi expects Antofagasta to produce 634,000 tonnes of copper this year, towards the lower end of the company’s revised guidance of 625,000 to 655,000 tonnes.
The bank said the disruption and subsequent guidance reduction had caused a small pullback in Antofagasta’s share price after its results, while warning that Chile’s winter season is only halfway through and strong El Niño effects could create further risks.
Citi nevertheless expects cash flows to improve through 2026 and 2027, helping to offset the near-term production weakness.
The longer-term outlook is stronger, with Citi forecasting Antofagasta’s 2029 copper production to be 27% higher than its 2026 output as the Centinela expansion begins to ramp up next year.
Antofagasta has said its Centinela Second Concentrator and Los Pelambres growth projects are progressing towards completion of commissioning in 2027, with the projects expected to increase group copper production by about 30%.
The bank estimates Antofagasta’s share price currently implies a copper price of about $7.10 a pound, above the current spot price but broadly consistent with the premium copper has commanded over the past two years.
Antofagasta’s first-half results showed the company’s cash-generation strength, with operating cash flow rising 53% to $2.77 billion and EBITDA increasing 27% to $2.84 billion.
The Citi outlook therefore points to near-term operational risk but continued confidence in Antofagasta’s longer-term production growth and cash-flow potential.
