Shares in Oxford BioMedica PLC (LSE:OXB) fell 19% to 479p after the cell and gene therapy manufacturer cut its 2026 guidance, a reaction that reflects the scale of the earnings hit rather than the revenue shortfall alone.
Peel Hunt and Stifel, the two brokers to publish on the update, both put the revenue downgrade at about 17% against consensus. The cut to earnings is roughly three times that.
New guidance points to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of about £9.5 million, against consensus of about £21.9 million, a reduction of around 50% on Peel Hunt's numbers.
The gap reflects operational gearing at a contract manufacturer carrying a fixed cost base.
Revenue that does not arrive still leaves the facilities, staff and overheads behind it.
OXB had guided to revenues of £220 million to £240 million, with consensus at £228 million.
That range has been reset to £180 million to £200 million, implying growth of about 12% this year at the midpoint.
Stifel notes that the second half now needs to deliver £110 million to £120 million, still around 20% growth on the same period last year.
The company attributes the shortfall to client ordering behaviour, including deferred programmes and a larger client changing both its procurement strategy and its regulatory approval pathway.
Those are decisions taken outside OXB's control.
Less easily explained away is the six-month delay to integrating the Durham, North Carolina site, which pushed back operational readiness.
The company says that plan is now back on track, with the first manufacturing run underway.
The awkward part of the update is the framing. OXB led with strong commercial momentum and left its medium-term targets untouched, including 25% to 30% revenue growth in 2027 and about £500 million of revenue by 2030.
Holding those ambitions in place while resetting the near term asks investors to treat a 50% earnings cut as a timing issue.
There is a case for doing so.
Stifel points to a revenue backlog of about £193 million and contracted client orders of about £97 million, with roughly £165 million of this year's revenues already covered, equivalent to about 87% cover at the midpoint of the new range.
Both brokers have kept their buy ratings, Peel Hunt with a 846p target and Stifel at 950p.
Stifel concedes, however, that the downgrade is likely to force meaningful cuts to forecasts and consensus, and to weaken sentiment in the near term.
The share price move suggests that has already happened.
