RBC Capital Markets reckons the easiest way to profit from higher UK interest rates over the next three months is to own NatWest and Metro Bank.
Rate expectations have climbed by roughly a percentage point since the second quarter, and the market increasingly sees the shift as lasting, analyst Benjamin Toms said.
Money markets now expect Bank of England rates to peak just above 5%, compared with around 4% at the end of June.
That matters for banks because of their structural hedges, which lock in returns on customer deposits using interest rate swaps.
RBC calculates that a one percentage point rise in swap rates would lift UK banks' pre-tax profits by 5.5% in 2028, with NatWest the biggest winner at 6.6%, ahead of Lloyds at 5.4% and Barclays at 4.6%.
NatWest and Metro offer that rate sensitivity at a modest discount, the broker argued.
Metro, rated 'outperform' at 170.2p, is in a "Goldilocks" position.
It has £833 million of treasury assets, 13% of the total, maturing in the second half of 2026 at a yield of just 0.85%, against around 5% on five-year gilts.
Reinvesting that cash should underpin its targets for return on tangible equity, a key profitability measure, of more than 15% in 2027 and more than 18% in 2028.
NatWest, rated 'sector perform' at 684.6p, said current rates were very supportive of its medium-term targets, though funding corporate loan growth through wholesale markets could squeeze its net interest margin, the gap between lending and deposit rates.
Lloyds ('outperform', 107p) expects lending to slow in the second half and flagged headwinds to other income, but would only worry about loan quality if rates hit 7% to 8%.
Barclays ('outperform', 456.6p) feels "a bit jam tomorrow", with management insisting the market underestimates its ambitions beyond 2028 and seeing no sign of bad debts rising.
HSBC ('sector perform', 1,499.8p) has revenue momentum but is more cautious on 2027, citing tougher comparisons and business disposals.
Other specialist lenders, including Paragon, OSB, Shawbrook and Close Brothers, would generally prefer lower rates because of the risk of margin compression.
