- FTSE 100 rises 97 points to 10,736
- Brent crude tops $100/bbl, before easing
- Retail sales rise 1% in June
- UK consumer confidence in July at highest since January
5.30pm: Pressure off… for now
The FTSE 100 finished the day up 97 points at 10,736 as a pullback in oil prices took the pressure off equities.
“This is likely to be a temporary respite for stocks generally, since the US and Iran are no closer to beginning any kind of ceasefire talk,” IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said.
He added that pressure on equities is likely to resume next week, with an action-packed week set to keep investors busy.
“While the corporate calendar is full to the brim next week, it is not likely to provide much relief for stocks,” Beauchamp said.
“This week’s Alphabet numbers were a sign that investors are still very skittish about the vast spending plans of the hyperscalers, and with this earnings season taking place against a backdrop of military strikes, the inclination remains to keep derisking as the summer goes on.”
4.19pm: Next week's results - AstraZeneca, GSK, Lloyds, BAE, IAG, Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon
London and European blue chips are surging as the week comes to an end, with oil prices on the wane. Brent is down to below $96 now, from over $100 earlier.
Across the pond, the Nasdaq has clawed its way back into the green too, just above parity.
This comes after reports that Pakistan and Iran were exploring a path to renewed talks with the US as part of a China-backed diplomatic initiative.
Time to look ahead to next week, as we will be getting results from over a dozen FTSE 100 companies, including some of the index's biggest, along with a number of closely followed mid-caps.
The week kicks off with AstraZeneca's half-year results, with investors likely to focus on drug sales, its development pipeline and any impact from proposed US pharmaceutical tariffs. There's also quarterly updates expected from Vodafone and Cranswick.
Tuesday sees Unilever, ITV, Unite Group and Canal+ publish half-year figures, while Games Workshop reports annual results.
Unilever will be watched for evidence that volumes remain resilient as it raises prices to offset higher commodity and supply-chain costs. In the US, Coca-Cola and Visa report quarterly results.
On Wednesday we hear from GSK, Rio Tinto and Lancashire Holdings.
Midweek also brings US big tech, with Microsoft and Meta facing pressure to demonstrate tangible returns from heavy AI investment, with Procter & Gamble and Arm also reporting.
Another big event for Wednesday is the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, which comes as rate expectations mount on the back of resurgent oil prices.
It's the Bank of England's go on Thursday, though no change to rates is expected.
Also on Thursday, the FTSE's big banks also begin reporting, with Lloyds Bank and Standard Chartered leading a busy UK session alongside BAE Systems, Rentokil, LSEG, Mondi, Drax and Hammerson.
Lloyds investors will seek clarity on its £1.95 billion motor finance provision, future capital returns and new medium-term targets.
More Mag 7 earnings across the pond too, with Apple and Amazon reporting, alongside key PCE inflation data and jobless claims numbers.
Rounding out the week won't be quiet, with IAG, Intertek, NatWest, Taylor Wimpey and Rightmove delivering half-year results.
In the US, there will be quarterly updates from AbbVie and Chevron.
3.38pm: BP 'near' deal to offload solar unit
BP is in advanced talks to sell its Lightsource solar business to a Kuwait-backed consortium, the FT is reporting.
Boss Meg O'Neill is continuing her predecessor's efforts to simplify operations and refocus on oil and gas.
The FT says the consortium includes Wren House, an arm of the Kuwait Investment Authority, as well as private equity firm Qualitas Energy.
3.26pm: Flying taxis may be 'finding a route to viability'
Farnborough air show is being held this week, where several electric vertical take-off and landing (eVOTL) aircraft designers have been demonstrating their wares, including three New York listed names: Vertical Aerospace, Archer Aviation and Beta Technologies.
As well as demonstrating how its eVOTL aircraft will operate in real world environments, Vertical Aerospace also announced "advanced discussions" with the UK government on support to anchor first full-scale production facilities including a grant of up to £10 million.
Vertical is also leading the £3.4 million UK-backed ECLiPSE programme to develop next-generation charging and thermal management technologies for electric aircraft.
Elsewhere, the Financial Times says eVTOL developers are moving beyond the flying-taxi dream towards military, cargo and regional transport uses that may offer a quicker "route to economic viability".
Filing from Farnborough, the FT report notes that Archer Aviation unveiled a helicopter-style strike drone with US defence group Anduril at the show, while Beta Technologies presented a cargo drone for military use.
Regional flights could provide another market, the article says, particularly as 90% of Americans and half of Europeans live within 30 minutes of a smaller airport. Hybrid aircraft, combining electric take-off with conventional flight, could also reduce the need for expensive charging infrastructure, it was suggested.
Regulatory cooperation is improving, with US rules allowing some revenue-generating trials before full certification.
The technology remains expensive, however, seen via Archer and Joby Aviation burning through more than $3 billion between them since floating in 2021, although analysts believe both have enough funding to operate for several more years.
Some early movers may therefore "be able to survive to see their technologies take off".
2.50pm: Mixed open in New York
It's another mixed open on Wall Street, with the Dow adding 175 points, or 0.3%, and the S&P 500 edging 0.1% higher.
The Nasdaq started down 0.3% as technology shares seem to be extending yesterday's selloff, with Charter Communications sliding 6% after earnings, while other fallers include SanDisk, Micron, Marvell, Western Digital and Lumentum all down over 3%.
American Express has dropped 4.8%, the biggest Dow faller, but Verizon tops the leaderboard with a 3.5% gain, followed by Salesforce and IBM.
Back in London, the FTSE has picked up steam, up over 70 points now.
1.37pm: FTSE lagging European gains
European markets are generally in a positive mode today, despite the tariff malarkey, which was not a surprise anyway.
The FTSE's 0.35% gain compares to a 0.6% rise for the pan-continental Stoxx 600, with all major regional indices in positive territory.
Spain's IBEX leads the advance with a 1% rise, while Germany's DAX is up 0.9% and Milan has added 0.7%.
The DAX is being led by software group SAP, which has jumped 6.5% after its current cloud backlog rose 27% to €22.9 billion, helping ease concerns about the resilience of its cloud business in the AI era.
Volkswagen has fallen 1.5% after reporting a sharp profit decline and warning that revenue could fall by as much as 3% this year amid weaker sales in China.
Wise is one of the biggest fallers on the Stoxx 600, down 6.5% following the rejection of its US banking charter application.
1.16pm: Wall St preview
Wall Street is set for a tentative recovery, after the previous session's technology selloff wiped roughly $800 billion from the market value of the so-called Magnificent Seven giants.
Dow Jones futures are up 0.4%, while the S&P 500 is expected to add 0.2% and Nasdaq futures are broadly flat, having surrendered an earlier gain of around 0.25%.
In company news, Intel shares are up 3% in premarket trading after beating second-quarter expectations and issuing a stronger outlook.
American Express stock is down 2.3% despite an earnings beat, while Verizon is down 1.3% and NextEra Energy has slipped 0.7% following their own quarterly updates.
Elsewhere, a senior Korean official said Samsung and SK Hynix are expected to announce "very large-scale" contracts with leading US technology companies during President Lee Jae-myung’s visit to Silicon Valley, which starts today.
12.19pm: Gains chipped away
The FTSE is slipping back towards flat as we move into the afternoon half of the session.
Falls for BP and Shell of 1.7% and 1.3% are weighing on the index, with Brent crude front-month futures having dropped from over $101 in the early hours to below $97 in the past hour. Currently the price stands at $97.75.
The bond market might be having an influence, as yields were falling this morning, but have started to inch higher again.
"Government borrowing costs are up around the globe, piling pressure on overstretched budgets just as Europe looks to ramp up defence spending, while the chances of a Fed rate hike this year build by the day. Another summer of volatility appears to lie ahead," says market analyst Chris Beauchamp at IG.
Biggest falls on the index are at Airtel Africa, Howden Joiner, BT and Rentokil. At the other end, the leaderboard is led by retailer JD Sports, up 3%, followed by 3i Group, whose main investment is retailer Action.
Some thoughts on President Trump's new round of tariffs (see earlier), effective today on 60 countries, covering over 99% of US goods imports and supposedly made to adopt and enforce legislation to ban "forced labour" imports, the White House said.
"Special tariff regimes for cars, steel and aluminium are unaffected," notes John Wyn-Evans at Rathbones, and so there is no "double stacking" of tariffs.
With the UK and EU subject to the 10% rate, he notes that the tariffs "do not represent an accusation that the UK and EU, for example, are employing forced labour, more that they and others are taking insufficient measures to ensure that their own imports are not from countries that do".
Wyn-Evans points to research from the Yale Budget Lab that calculates the average statutory tariff rate stood at 12.1%, so if Trump's previous expiring tariffs not been replaced, they would have fallen to 9.8% at the end of this year.
"Now the rate will be 12.8%. The burden will, once again, mostly fall on US consumers and importers, although there will be minimal impact on year-on-year inflation.
"Market reaction has therefore been limited, although it's difficult to disaggregate the effects from the re-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and the ongoing debate about the profitability and duration of AI-related investment.
"Trade policy and tariffs continue to be a convenient stick which the President will continue to use to express his ire, however impractical."
11.51am: Consumer confidence
Analyst David Hughest at Shore Capital has welcomed a rise in the GfK consumer confidence index to its highest since January.
This came out overnight, with GfK assigning the improved mood to a trifecta of factors, these being the FIFA World Cup, de-escalation in the Middle East and optimism about a change in Government.
"Now, the football is over and the ceasefire in ME looks to have been short lived but at least at the time of writing Burnham remains the Prime Minister so the question becomes how long the “Burnham Bounce” will be sustained," says Hughes.
As ever, the GfK comes on the same day as ONS retail sales, which showed strong growth of 7% in value terms and 5% in volume terms.
Within the Gfk figure, Hughest sees the most significant movements in consumers’ views on the UK economy, both for the previous 12 months and for the upcoming 12 months, and in the major purchase index, up eight points to -12, "an encouraging sign for bigger-ticket retailers such as DFS and Wickes".
Less progress was seen in consumers’ views of their own finances and, with expectations of rising inflation in the second half of the year due to the current rise in oil and gas prices, "this likely means we will continue to see price-conscious behaviour and trading down as key features of the retail sector".
Overall, while the GfK and ONS figures are an encouraging sign for an "uncertain" retail sector, the renewed Gulf tensions could mean "part of this improvement is short-lived".
11.17am: Gas prices up as Europe struggles to refill storage
UK natural gas prices have climbed back above 151p per therm this week, close to their highest levels of the Iran war, after having fallen below 100p late last month.
UBS analyst Nayoung Kim says tanker traffic carrying liquid natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz had been "virtually absent in both directions", while Qatar's extension of force majeure until mid-October was "heightening concerns over supply risks beyond summer".
European and Asian buyers are competing for available cargoes, supporting global LNG prices. Meanwhile, EU storage was only 54% full on 21 July, compared with 65% last year and a seasonal average of 70%. In contrast, the US is in a more comfortable position, with storage 71% full.
Weekly injections, ie the amount of gas added to underground storage facilities during the week, slowed to 1.6 billion cubic metres from 1.9 billion, as LNG imports fell 4% from the previous week and 27% year on year.
UBS forecasts storage will reach 75% by the end of October, but Kim warns that the current injection rate would leave it at just 72% – below the previous decade low of 77%.
10.39am: Sizeable geopolitical risks
Brent crude has climbed back above $100 a barrel due to threats against energy infrastructure and growing instability around key shipping routes, says market analyst Daniela Hathorn at Capital.com, which has "rebuilt a sizeable geopolitical risk premium into oil markets".
Disruption is now being seen in the Red Sea, with attacks on commercial vessels compounding concerns over global trade and energy security.
"Combined with tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the developments have reinforced the view that geopolitical risks are unlikely to fade anytime soon, keeping energy markets tight and inflation risks elevated."
This is making the picture complex for central banks, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan decisions due next week.
US weekly jobless claims falling to their lowest level since 1969, reinforces the view that "the labour market remains remarkably resilient despite elevated interest rates", she says.
"Strong employment continues to support consumer spending and the broader economy, but it also gives the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to keep policy restrictive if inflationary pressures persist."
Corporate earnings have provided another test for investors, Hathorn says, with mixed results from the first Big Tech companies.
"With AI remaining the dominant investment theme, markets are becoming increasingly selective, rewarding strong execution while showing less tolerance for elevated spending without a clear path to returns."
10.14am: PMI hints at underlying UK growth
The flash PMI "provides the first tentative indication that GDP growth can continue to rise at a healthy clip in Q3", says Rob Wood at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
He estimates that the PMI for July in isolation is consistent with quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2%, in line with his forecast.
"That said, the composite PMI is being supported by precautionary stockbuilding amongst manufacturers, and the survey window closed on July 22nd, so some of the recent jump in oil prices will not be captured in the flash release."
That said, the improving forward-looking elements of the PMI suggest "the positive momentum seen in the headline activity indices could be maintained".
"Stronger activity pipelines led firms to boost the hiring intentions according to the PMI, with the employment balance ticking up to 48.2, from 46.8. That sub-index is consistent with payrolls dropping by 9K month-to-month in July, though the PMI has been too downbeat on jobs lately, so we think the change in the PMI represents a better signal than the level.
Wood says the MPC at its meeting next week "will be encouraged by a fall in the PMI’s price balances", with the services output price balance also ticking down, though he says the PMI has been sending an overly strong signal on underlying services inflation recently.
9.47am: Flash PMI improves
The 'flash' UK composite PMI rose to 52.1 in July from 49.3 in June, above the consensus estimate of 49.8.
Services climbed above the mark that separates expansion from contraction, rising to 51.8 from 48.8, above the 49.4 expected.
The manufacturing PMI also rose, hitting 52.8 from 52.5, above the consensus forecast of 52.0.
The output index, which is used with the services PMI to give the composite reading, rose to 53.6 from 52.6.
Firms boosted hiring intentions, with the employment balance ticking up to 48.2 from 46.8.
Data were collected between July 9 and 22.
Chris Williamson at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which carries out the survey, said this optimism about the year ahead followed the reduced geopolitical tensions during the survey period and the associated drop in oil prices.
"But with Middle East worries flaring up again in recent days, a sustained cooling in the price data and upturn in business confidence is by no means assured."
The hospitality sector enjoyed a boost to demand from good weather, the World Cup and more domestic holidays, Williamson said, with high costs and uncertainty continuing to deter some foreign travel.
"However, overall services growth remained lacklustre amid cost-of-living pressures."
On inflation, he said price pressures cooled thanks to the lower oil prices seen during the first half of the month.
"However, inflationary pressures clearly remain elevated, as the ongoing energy shock and supply squeeze from the war in the Middle East continues to add to existing business cost pressures from earlier government policies."
Higher costs were likely to have contributed to a further fall in employment, which Williamson noted has declined continuously since the Autumn 2024 Budget.
9.25am: More morning movers
Renishaw PLC (LSE:RSW) jumped 8% after the precision engineering group said full-year profits would beat market expectations following a record fourth quarter. Strong demand from semiconductor, electronics, aerospace and defence customers helped drive a 27% rise in quarterly revenue. Analysts said the company has effectively "jumped a year ahead" of previous earnings forecasts. Read more
discoverIE Group PLC (LSE:DSCV) jumped 12.5% after the customised electronics maker said full-year earnings are tracking ahead of expectations. Strong order growth drove optimism, with organic orders up 31% in the first quarter and sales rising 6%. Recent acquisitions also performed well, helping reinforce confidence in the group’s growth plans. Read more
AOTI Inc (AIM:AOTI) jumped 29% after the wound-care specialist said proposed Medicare coverage could expand its TWO2 therapy market opportunity 65-fold to around US$26 billion. The move follows plans to cover topical oxygen therapy for hard-to-heal diabetic foot ulcers, potentially opening access to millions more patients and supporting wider insurance reimbursement. Read more
Arc Minerals Limited (AIM:ARCM, OTC:ACMNF, FRA:DFYA) gained 6% after its Virgo copper project in Botswana revealed an 18-kilometre geological contact ahead of drilling. The expanded structure, identified through geophysical surveying, hosts several promising anomalies and is near major discoveries at Khoemacau. Drilling is expected to begin in early August. Read more
Wise Group PLC (LSE:WISE, NASDAQ:WSE) fell 9% after the payments firm said US regulators had rejected its application for a national trust bank charter. The company said the decision does not affect its current US operations, with existing money transmitter licences still in place. Wise added it plans to submit a revised application reflecting its growth and regulatory progress. Read more
8.55am: FTSE 100 holds up
The FTSE 100 is holding onto its early gains, now up 29 points at 10,668.55, despite negative sentiment in the tech sector and that resurgent oil price.
Other European markets are also faring well, with the Paris market up 0.2% and Frankfurt rallying 0.6%.
Asia hasn't been so lucky, though, with Tokyo's Nikkei 225 falling 2.7%, Shanghai's SSE Composite down 1.6% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong losing just over 1%.
The tech-heavy Kospi in Seoul has slumped 5.7%, driven by the sharp overnight correction in US equities and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
"Markets are ending the week with the worst possible pairing: an AI de-rating and an oil shock," commented Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly. "The technology selloff has gathered pace as investors question whether the returns on AI capex can justify the spending surge, while Brent’s move through $100/bbl has revived the inflation scare and pushed central-bank pricing back in a hawkish direction."
8.15am: Footsie defies weaker sentiment
The FTSE 100 opened lower but quickly retraced its losses to trade higher 20 minutes into Friday trading.
London's blue-chip index is currently 25 points up at 10,664.36, defying expectations for a 40-point decine at the open.
Software group The Sage Group PLC (LSE:SGE) led the gainers, adding 1.7%, while Pershing Square Holdings (LSE:PSH) and RELX PLC (LSE:REL) both added 1.5%.
On the downside, Airtel Africa PLC (LSE:AAF) slid 2.7%, Standard Chartered PLC (LSE:STAN) fell 1.8% and Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) lost 1.6%.
Surprisingly, perhaps, BP PLC (LSE:BP.) and Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) are both down around 1% despite Brent crude topping $100 a barrel for the first time in months. Both have had a good week though as oil started its climb.
8am: Retail sales warm up
UK retail sales rebounded in June, with the volume of goods bought rising 1% from May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The improvement followed a solid May and helped lift sales volumes by 0.6% across the second quarter compared with the first three months of the year.
Retailers pointed to warm weather and seasonal promotions as key drivers of stronger spending. Non-store retailers enjoyed increased demand for outdoor products, sports equipment, clothing, fans and air conditioning, while clothing stores recorded their biggest monthly sales increase since September 2025. Department stores and computer and telecoms retailers also performed well.
Online shopping continued to gain momentum, with online spending rising 2.8% during the month and accounting for 29.4% of total retail sales, the highest share since April 2021.
Fuel sales, however, remained subdued after motorists had stocked up earlier in the year, with retailers also citing higher prices and fewer journeys as factors weighing on demand.
7.50am: Trump's tariff wall is back
President Donald Trump has dusted off his tariff playbook, with a new round of import duties taking effect on around 60 trading partners after a temporary set of levies expired.
The new Section 301 tariffs range from 10% to 12.5%. The UK, EU, Canada and India have landed in the 10% bracket, while China, Japan and South Korea face the higher rate. The White House says the tariffs are designed to pressure trading partners to tighten rules on forced labour in supply chains.
The move follows February's Supreme Court ruling that knocked out an earlier wave of tariffs, forcing the administration to find a more legally robust route. Mission accomplished.
As Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid noted, the outcome was "largely in line with what was signalled" after last month's investigations into forced labour practices. For markets, the latest chapter in Trump's trade agenda is unlikely to be the last, with tariffs once again becoming a central feature of US economic policy.
7.35am: Brent back in triple digits
Brent crude is back above the psychologically important $100 a barrel level as mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East fuel concerns over potential supply disruptions, reinforcing an already tight global oil market.
The rally comes as investors weigh the risk that any escalation could affect key export routes or production from the region, which accounts for a significant share of global crude supply. Those concerns have been amplified by OPEC+'s continued production restraint, leaving the market with limited spare capacity to absorb further shocks.
Strong seasonal demand has also supported prices, with summer travel and resilient consumption offsetting concerns about slower global economic growth.
The return to triple-digit oil prices has broader implications for financial markets. Higher energy costs risk prolonging inflationary pressures, potentially complicating the path towards lower interest rates in major economies. While the move is supportive for oil producers and energy equities, it raises fresh questions over the outlook for consumers, corporate margins and central bank policy should elevated prices persist.
“With nerves about the potential inflationary impact of the escalating conflict in the Middle East colliding with worries about soaring tech capex, it’s been tough to find the optimism, even if London markets enjoyed a continued boost from big oil and defence stocks as investors adjust to the changing political and geopolitical landscapes," commented AJ Bell's Danni Hewson. “It’s worth remembering that at the start of the month the price was hovering around $70 a barrel and markets had dared to hope that central bankers might be able to seamlessly shift from a pause to further cuts."
FTSE 100 Live pre-open
London looks set to open in the red on Friday, with tech selling and oil topping $100 a barrel combining to darken the mood heading into the weekend.
Futures traders have the FTSE 100 called 40 points lower, building on Thursday's 77-point decline to 10,639. The blue-chip index faces pressure from two directions: a sharp Wall Street sell-off driven by disappointing Big Tech earnings, and fresh geopolitical anxiety in the Middle East pushing oil prices to triple figures for the first time in months.
US stocks fell heavily overnight, with the Nasdaq leading the way down 2.2% as investors took a dim view of quarterly results from Alphabet and Tesla. The S&P 500 dropped 1.2%, its worst session of the month, while the Dow shed 1%.
The problem wasn't the earnings themselves, according to Swissquote's Ipek Ozkardeskaya; it was the spending. "Earnings themselves were not the problem; spending and evaporating free cash flow were," she said. "Both Alphabet and Tesla stood by their capital investment plans, while Alphabet raised its capex outlook by $15 billion to $205 billion. Meanwhile, free cash flow at both Alphabet and Tesla turned negative in the second quarter."
Ozkardeskaya warned that Big Tech, once defined by being capital-light and cash-heavy, is becoming the opposite: increasingly reliant on equity and debt issuance to finance AI ambitions at a time when interest rate expectations are moving higher.
