Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is heading into its second-quarter earnings report with robotaxis doing most of the talking.
Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating on the stock and $460 price objective, pointing to the service's rapid expansion, a delivery number that blew past Wall Street estimates, and looming production milestones for the company's Optimus humanoid robot.
The bank said investor focus will center on the pace of robotaxi fleet scaling and new market launches. Tesla now operates in five markets following its July 3 launch in Miami, though its San Francisco service still requires a safety driver. Four additional markets are in preparation, compared with the company's original target of nine cities by the first half of 2026.
Tesla's Texas fleet has scaled quickly, adding more than 100 vehicles over the past month to reach 175, the fastest growth among the robotaxi operators Bank of America tracks. Safety data has remained compelling, with 22 incidents recorded through mid-June since the service's inception and no serious injuries or fatalities. A San Francisco pricing study the bank conducted in June found Tesla was 21% cheaper on average than Waymo, Uber and Lyft, though wait times ran three to four times higher, suggesting demand is outpacing supply.
On the core auto business, Tesla reported second-quarter deliveries of approximately 480,000 vehicles, above consensus estimates of about 406,000 and up 25% year-over-year. That compares with S&P forecasts for global battery electric vehicle sales growth of 15% year-over-year, suggesting Tesla gained roughly 95 basis points of BEV market share. U.S. share rose 50 basis points year-over-year to 46.1% in the quarter.
Bank of America also flagged upcoming updates on Optimus. Tesla is targeting initial production at Fremont for late July or August, around the same time as a possible Gen 3 reveal, with Giga Texas production expected around summer 2027. The bank expects a slow ramp but sees long-term opportunity, forecasting global humanoid shipments of 1.2 million units by 2030 and 10 million by 2035.
Beyond Optimus, the bank expects focus on energy storage following Tesla's agreement with NatPower for 25 GWh using its Megapack system. Tesla remains the leading battery energy storage systems company in the U.S., an area now drawing entrants including Ford, General Motors and BorgWarner.
Bank of America said Tesla is in the early stages of monetizing its autonomy capabilities, which it views as the most significant change agent in the shift toward autonomous, electric transportation.
