Bettors on Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market, put the chance of Bitcoin dropping to $75,000 before the end of September at about 51%.
The same market gives the world's largest cryptocurrency a 70% chance of climbing back to $80,000 within the month, pointing to a choppy few weeks rather than a clear trend.
Bitcoin was trading just below $77,000 on Friday, down more than a third from the record high near $126,000 it set last October.
The wagering reflects a bruising September, a month traders nickname "Rektember" for its habit of delivering losses.
Prices have fallen steadily since 4 September, slipping below $80,000 and then $76,000 as investors braced for tighter monetary policy.
The main trigger came on Wednesday, when the US Federal Reserve, the country's central bank, raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4%.
It was the Fed's first increase since July 2023, a response to inflation that has stayed above its 2% target for more than five years.
Bitcoin briefly touched about $75,240 after the decision before steadying.
Higher rates tend to weigh on assets such as Bitcoin, which generates no income, because they lift returns on safer holdings and strengthen the dollar.
Policymakers signalled one further rise before the end of the year and no cuts until 2027, keeping pressure on riskier markets.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds still drew net inflows of about $987 million in early September, a sign that institutional demand has not drained away.
The prediction market sees little chance of a dramatic move either way, giving Bitcoin an 18% chance of reaching $85,000 and an 11% chance of sinking to $70,000 this month.
Even so, the near-even odds on $75,000 show how finely balanced sentiment has become as the Fed abandons the pause that markets had grown used to.
