Polymarket traders are pricing in a 77% chance that Anthropic extends paid-plan access to its flagship Claude Fable 5 model beyond Saturday's deadline, up 33 points as the cutoff approaches.
The prediction market, which has drawn more than $57,000 in volume, resolves yes if the AI company announces a qualifying extension beyond 19 July.
The odds reflect a now-familiar pattern.
Anthropic has already pushed back the deadline three times, from the original 22 June cutoff to 7 July, then 12 July, and now 19 July, with each reprieve announced hours before the wire.
Fable 5, Anthropic's most capable generally available model, launched on 9 June and was meant to move to usage-credit-only billing after a two-week promotional window.
Subscribers on Pro, Max, Team and eligible Enterprise plans can currently use the model for up to 50% of their weekly usage limits at no extra cost.
Once the promotion ends, access will require prepaid credits at $10 per million input tokens and $50 per million output tokens, the first instance of a frontier AI lab adopting usage-based billing for a consumer model.
Anthropic says it aims to restore Fable 5 as a standard subscription feature once it secures sufficient computing capacity.
The rolling deadlines come amid pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol, which benchmarks close behind Fable 5 at a fraction of the cost.
A companion Polymarket contract puts a 68% chance on Anthropic announcing permanent paid-plan access, while another gives 84% odds of a new Mythos-class model by 30 September.
