- FTSE 100 down 13 points at 10,515
- Miners fall on weaker China GDP
- Barratt Redrow, ICG, B&M, NextEnergy Solar publish updates
5.15pm: Stocks little changed
London stocks finished the day modestly lower, with the FTSE 100 down 13 points at 10,515. Across the Atlantic, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq edged 0.1% lower while the Dow Jones was flat.
4.22pm: Oil prices soften
Oil prices have continued to soften despite Iran threatening to halt all energy exports from the Middle East, following the restarting of tjhe US blockade of its ports and ships earlier troday.
"Regional energy exports are either shared by all or denied to all," Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement.
It says the Strait will remain closed until the "end of America’s evils".
But Brent crude is now down 1% today at under $84 a barrel.
Shares in Shell and BP are down 0.5% and 1.6%.
Miners Fresnillo, Anglo American, Endeavour and Antofagasta remain the biggest fallers on the index, along with telecoms companies Vodafone, Airtel Africa and BT, tech fund Scottish Mortgage and Polar Cap Tech.
3.45pm: US tech gains fade
Early gains in the Nasdaq have faded as a sharp sell-off in storage and semiconductor stocks gathered pace, with SanDisk falling 13%, while Western Digital, Seagate and Micron all post 8-9% losses.
The weakness has spread across the broader chip sector, dragging down names including Marvell, AMD, Lam Research and Applied Materials, weighing on the tech-heavy index.
This is despite ASML, the European chip-equipment giant, climbing slightly after raising sales forecasts.
3.23pm: Water mess
One of the biggest UK business stories today is about unlisted Thames Water, which increased bonus payments to senior managers last year despite warning of "material uncertainty" over its future, saying funding is due to dry up by November and meeting just 55% of its regulated performance targets.
Britain's biggest water company increased bonuses from £2.8 million to £4.1 million in the year to March. Chief executive Chris Weston also received a rise in basic pay and a previously deferred bonus of £99,000, as he was blocked from receiving a new one by the government's bonus ban.
Thames warned that it needs to complete a recapitalisation, as net debt climbed to £19.7 billion from £17.7 billion a year earlier, with talks ongoing with creditors, regulators and the government on a rescue plan.
Further funding from lenders is expected to depend in part on the stance of incoming prime minister Andy Burnham, who has indicated he is considering bringing the utility into temporary public ownership.
Failure to agree a refinancing package is likely to push the group into a 'special administration regime', which could pave the way for nationalisation.
2.50pm: US stocks open higher, PayPal and Blackrock in lead
Wall Street has opened on the front foot, with investors digesting more earnings.
The Nasdaq has added 0.4% in initial trades, while the S&P 500 and the Dow both are up 0.3%.
PayPal has leapt 14.5% on a reported bid from that payments company Stripe and private equity firm Advent.
BlackRock is among the standout S&P performers, jumping more than 7% after the world's largest asset manager reported a record US$15 trillion of assets under management.
The group attracted US$192 billion of net inflows during the second quarter as investors continued to pour money into exchange-traded funds.
Elsewhere, uniform supplier Cintas rose 4.7%, while software groups Adobe and Workday were also among the leading gainers in the Nasdaq 100.
2.07pm: Oil calm despite new US-Iran strikes
Oil prices are remaining relatively sanguine despite new daylight strikes by the US on Iran.
Brent crude has eased back towards US$85 a barrel after earlier touching about US$86.50, although prices remained elevated compared to two weeks ago.
US Central Command said it had completed another round of strikes on Greater Tunb Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, targeting coastal defence systems and cruise missile storage and launch sites.
The operation was "designed to further degrade military capabilities Iranian forces have used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz", it said.
The latest strikes followed an earlier wave launched during daylight hours, marking a departure from previous US operations, which had taken place overnight.
Iran has vowed a "decisive response" after local media reported that seven military personnel were killed in a US strike on a military base in Bampur in the country's south-east, with several others wounded.
1.19pm: Ed Miliband no longer favourite to be Chancellor
Prediction markets are still struggling to settle on who will become Britain's next chancellor.
On Polymarket, the favourite is now Shabana Mahmood, with an implied probability of 43.8% for the current Home Secretary, ahead of former home secretary Yvette Cooper on just over 35%.
Former Labour leader Ed Miliband is a distant third on 17%, having been favourite a week ago at over 65% implied probability, while previous favourite Wes Streeting is rated an outsider at 3.5%.
The market has been volatile over the past 24 hours, with Cooper briefly overtaking Mahmood before the latter regained the lead.
The market is likely to have turned amid Westminster reports that senior allies of Burnham believe they have succeeded in blocking Miliband from the Treasury, on concerns he would become a lightning rod for criticism of the government.
Elsewhere, a Bloomberg survey of market participants showed Miliband is investors’ least favoured choice, with Mahmood not far behind him. Wes Streeting is by far the most market-friendly choice, apparently.
12.13pm: European stocks in the red, US futures green
London's blue-chips and those in other European financial centres remain under pressure at midday trading, although losses have eased slightly, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 only down 0.1%
Germany's DAX continued to lag with a 0.8% decline, with falls of 0.5-0.6% in Madrid and Milan, while in Paris the CAC 40 is down 0.2%.
Wall Street looked set for a slightly more sanguine start, led by the tech sector, with Nasdaq futures up 0.5%, S&P 500 futures rising 0.1% and those for the Dow little moved.
Summing up yesterday's Wall Street session, market analyst Kenny Polcari of SlateStone Wealth said investors were able to look through IBM's record one-day share price drop thanks to stronger-than-expected bank earnings and easing US inflation.
"The banks steal the show as they kick off the earnings season," he says, with five of the largest banks in the country together earning roughly $49 billion in profits, a 39% annual increase, inclduing JPM and Goldman Cash posting the best quarters in their history.
Today's earnings include ASML Holding, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), BlackRock and BNY Mellon.
11.53am: Save our stock market
Ahead of Andy Burnham being confirmed as the new PM, which is expected on Friday, the Association of Investment Companies has drawn up its wish list to "save our stock market".
Top of it is a familiar demand from the City: scrap the UK's 0.5% stamp duty on share purchases.
The trade body for the investment trust sector argues the tax is making UK equities less attractive at a time when London is already losing listed companies to overseas buyers and struggling to attract new flotations.
AIC chief executive Richard Stone points to Peel Hunt analysis showing the value of takeover bids for UK-listed companies was 27 times greater than the value of IPOs in the first half of 2026.
He also wants Burnham to reverse the cut in venture capital trust tax relief from 30% to 20%, arguing it risks starving fast-growing businesses of funding before they reach the stock market.
Stone warned that London's challenges could intensify as blockbuster US listings continue to dominate global markets, citing the recent flotation of SpaceX and expected IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI, which could further increase the weighting of US shares in global equity indices.
"The situation on the London market is now so serious that it requires bolder interventions to save our stock market," Stone says, adding that abolishing stamp duty "would give the biggest financial return to the UK economy by encouraging more investors to buy UK equities and drive economic growth."
He notes that investment trusts make up 36% of the FTSE 250 and seven constituents of the FTSE 100, saying they are subject to "onerous double taxation given that the trusts themselves pay stamp duty when they buy UK shares, then investors have to pay stamp duty on the shares of the investment trusts".
11.16am: Netflix earnings tomorrow
One of the first US tech companies stepping up to the plate is Netflix, though it's more media that tech.
Chris Beauchamp at IG says the Q2 numbers "are an opportunity for the company to stop the year-long decline in its shares that have seen them lose over 45%".
Cash flow and margins are holding up, "but in a world of growing competition and the inevitable creep of AI, Netflix has to show that it can retain the engagement of its subscribers", he says.
"That is a long and never-ending task, so while tomorrow's numbers provide a chance to tell that story, it won't be a one-and-done.
"Alongside progress on that front, investors will want to see how the firm can squeeze more cash out of advertising from its cheaper tiers - ad revenue is only 6% of sales, so there is more to be done.
"The current rout in the shares is nowhere near as bad as 2022 yet, but unless Netflix can convince shareholders that it has a workable plan, then more losses seem likely."
10.59am: PayPal is 'dirt cheap'
The reported bid for PayPal from Stripe would put the payments group "out of its misery" after years of miserable share price performance, says Dan Coatsworth at AJ Bell.
"The payments sector has long been a hive of activity for takeover activity, and one must wonder why PayPal hasn’t already been picked off," he says, following its acquisition by eBay in 2002 for about US$1.5 billion then being spun back out in 2015.
The payments group was "merrily on its way to greatness when suddenly Apple Pay and Google Pay took off and grabbed some of PayPal’s market share", Coatsworth says, and has seemed to be further "left behind" in a busy market that has also seen the likes of Stripe, Block and Adyen become challengers.
"If the bid rumours are true, Stripe and Advent obviously see an opportunity to buy a company that’s down but not out," he says.
"The brand still has considerable trust among the public and business community, and it makes a decent profit. It is plugged into many of the hot payment themes including mobile payments, digital wallets and buy now, pay later. For Stripe, it provides a consumer-facing brand.
"Importantly, PayPal is dirt cheap. At its peak, the shares traded on more than 60 times earnings. They’re now on less than nine times which is the sort of rating that’s rarer than hen’s teeth in the payments sector."
10.43am: NextEnergy Solar sale process
Shares in NextEnergy Solar Fund are shining 5% brighter after the investment trust launched a formal sale process.
Jefferies analyst Matthew Hose says a sale "appears to be the best way forward", based on the valuation implied by Drax's offer for Bluefield Solar Income Fund as evidence of what solar assets are worth to trade buyers.
A sale would allow NextEnergy to repay its preference shares, Hose adds, avoiding potential dilution to ordinary shareholders at a later stage.
It might not be the simplest process, with the analyst flagging several complications in sourcing bids, though on the plus side the notice period under the management contract is only 12 months
10.27am: PayPal bid reported
Across the pond, PayPal shares have surged 16% in pre-market trading after reports that Irish-US payments startup Stripe has teamed up with private equity firm Advent International to make a joint $53 billion takeover bid.
According to Reuters, Stripe and Advent have offered US$60.50 a share, representing a 28% premium to PayPal's closing share price on Tuesday.
A proposal was submitted earlier this month, the report said, following an initial approach in early April.
10.15am: ICG is top riser
Alternative asset manager ICG is now top of the Footsie leaderboard, after a Q1 trading update.
The private credit investor reported fundraising of $4.1 billion, towards management's guidance for the full year to be below last year's $17 billion.
Analyst Abid Hussain at Panmure Liberum said this was "strong" and realisations were ahead of expectations at $1.98 billion, compared to his forecast of $1.68 billion.
Fee-earning AUM was in line at $88.1 billion, with total AUM at $126 billion versus his $127 billion estimate.
"Overall a solid, low drama quarter from management," Hussain said, with the shares trading on a nine-times two-year forward PE and the stock down 13%, "derating alongside the sector despite solid underlying performance, leaving today's numbers reinforcing what we see as a widening valuation opportunity".
10am: China thoughts
Various thoughts on China are appearing in my inbox, after GDP growth slowed to 4.3% in the second quarter, its slowest pace since 2023, below the official target range of 4.5-5% for this year.
Construction was the main drag, with growth in industrial output and construction slipping to 3.0% from 4.9% in Q1, while services sector growth was steady.
Retail sales rose 1.0% in June, after falling 0.5% in May, with sales of autos, household appliances and construction materials all posted double-digit falls.
Duncan Wrigley at Pantheon Macroeconomics says: "We had expected accelerated local government bond issuance in June to drive a modest improvement in infrastructure investment, but this has yet to appear".
Manufacturing output surged 6.0% y/y in June, up from 4.4% in May, as strong export demand outweighing sluggish domestic demand, he notes.
"Policymakers will see a ‘K’-shaped economy: vibrant high-tech manufacturing and exports in stark contrast with anaemic domestic demand, dull traditional industries and falling construction activity."
He adds: "We are hopeful of fresh thinking to tackle the underlying causes of weak consumption activity, namely the soft jobs market, the prolonged property sector downturn and people’s worries about future outlays as they age.
"More targeted property market support is likely. Meaningful social security reform, however, remains a longer-term project."
Laurence Booth, market analyst at CMC Markets, says: "Markets are trying to reconcile two very different signals. China's weaker growth figures point to softer global demand, while rising oil prices are putting inflation back on investors' radar.
"Until recently, markets were becoming more comfortable with the idea that inflation was steadily moving lower. Higher energy prices now challenge that view, particularly in Europe and the UK, where central banks remain wary of second-round inflation effects.
"That leaves investors in an uncomfortable position. Slower global growth would normally support the case for lower interest rates, but if energy prices remain elevated, policymakers may have less room to ease than markets currently expect."
9.19am: FTSE down, DAX down further
The FTSE 100 was down more than 80 points a short while ago, but has cut that deficit to around 35 points now.
Miners are being hit by weaker-than-expected Chinese GDP, with concerns about economic growth generally immediately seen by investors as likely to hit demand from the world's biggest consumer of industrial metals.
China's economy grew 4.3% in the second quarter, down from 5.0% in the first three months of the year and marking its weakest pace of expansion in three years, prompting investors to sell mining shares.
Precious metals also gave back some of the previous day's gains as risk appetite improved and rate expectations eased following softer US inflation.
A drop of 0.3% for London blue-chips compares to a 0.9% fall for Germany's DAX, which is the worst performing of the European markets this morning.
The DAX is underperforming due to falls for semiconductor group Infineon Technologies (XETRA:IFX, OTC:INFNNY), online retailer Zalando and defence contractor Rheinmetall, while chemicals groups BASF and Bayer also declining possibly reflecting the China growth angle.
This is despite Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML raising its 2026 guidance for a second time.
After yesterday's mildly positive session, European shares are lower this morning as the US continued to launch strikes on Iran overnight.
Crude oil prices are a bit firmer, with Brent up 1.5% to $86 a barrel, "though oil prices are trading a range and not taken out yesterday’s one-month high after Trump rowed back threats to impose 20% tolls on ships transiting the Strait," says market analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo. "Classic TACO Tuesday I guess."
After the softer CPI reading, Wilson also picks up on Fed chair Kevin Warsh's message that it is not mission accomplished yet.
After Warsh reiterated that the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation", Wilson wonders if this is "the Mario Draghi ‘whatever it takes’ approach or does it mean July is still live".
8.57am: B&M shares fall despite 'solid' quarter
B&M shares are down 4% after the Q1 trading update, but analyst Jonathan Pritchard at Peel Hunt says it was a "solid" quarter.
He says that the 2.3% UK LFL decline "is in line with forecasts, following the shape of the weather, up against a huge prior-year comparative from April last year (+10.9%)".
Overall, he sees B&M entering Q2 "with less seasonal volatility and a more stable base", with France (+5.3%) and Heron Foods (+2.6%) both ahead of his forecasts.
"In conclusion, it was a solid first quarter, with performance in keeping with our forecasts, and the wider market, and we expect consensus is likely to be largely unchanged following today’s update."
8.33am: Barratt Redrow - what analysts are saying
Some analysis of the Barratt Redrow numbers.
Clyde Lewis at Peel Hunt notes that completions were slightly ahead of the guided range, with adjusted PBT expected to be in line with the current City consensus forecast, and the order book is "only modestly lower" than the prior year.
With the planning backdrop continuing to pose difficulties, minimal growth in house prices and build cost inflation likely to be 3-4%, the business is "likely to see further gross margin pressure in FY27E", he reckons.
With admin costs and interest charges guided to increase by circa £40-45 million, this implied downgrades to its current PBT forecast of £568 million.
But Charlie Campbell at Stifel sees the outlook is "broadly where consensus is already" and growth "not predicated on better sales rates". Build cost inflation of around 3-4% compares to consensus at around 4%.
The shares trade at 0.6x book value, an 8% discount to the sector, "and only a little up on its lowest valuation since May 2012", Campbell says.
"We expect the shares to perform well in the next twelve months if the UK's inflation shock is short and sharp rather than prolonged."
8.15am: FTSE 100 opens lower as miners weigh
The FTSE 100 has dropped 65 points to 10,464 in opening trades, led by the mining sector.
Precious metals miners Fresnillo and Endeavour, along with copper-focused Antofagasta, make up the bottom three, with Anglo American and Rio Tinto a little behind. Gold, silver and copper are down 0.6-0.3% this morning.
Also among the bigger fallers are telecoms pair BT and Vodafone, along with defence and aerospace names Melrose, Babcock and BAE Systems.
Topping the leaderboard is Barratt Redrow, up just over 4% as its results impressed. Sector peer Persimmon is carried up 1.5% from read-across.
Only 15 of the index are in positive territory so far this morning.
7.57am: B&M mixed
B&M European Value Retail has reported first-quarter sales growth of 2% as strong trading in France and steady growth at Heron Foods helped lift the top-line revenue despite continuing soft trading in its core UK business.
The discount retailer said revenue rose to £1.43 billion in the 13 weeks to 27 June from a year earlier.
Revenue at B&M UK increased 0.3% to £1.14 billion, although like-for-like sales, which measure performance at stores open for at least 14 months, fell 2.3%. The decline was said to reflect a comparison with a stronger start to the garden season last year.
7.46am: Barratt bets on buybacks over dividends
Barratt Redrow has pledged to return £400 million to shareholders after deciding buybacks represent better value than paying larger cash dividends, as the housebuilder reported annual profits in line with expectations.
The FTSE 100 group completed 17,667 home sales in the year to 28 June, at the top end of its guidance range and up from 16,826 a year earlier.
There was net cash of £772 million at year-end, well ahead of the £550-650 million range it guided to in April, helped by lower land spending and delayed building safety remediation payments.
Looking ahead, completions are seen increasing to 17,700-18,200 in the new financial year, with "minimal" house price inflation but 3-4% build cost inflation.
7.28am: Rates in focus
The boost to the market from the US CPI inflation is not likely to last long, reckons market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote.
A softening in the annual rate of CPI and a month-on-month fell tamed hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, leading to a sharp pullback at the short end of the US Treasury yield curve.
The US two-year yield, which best captures Fed rate expectations, fell 10 basis points yesterday, with Fed funds futures now pricing out a July hike and sending the probability of a September rate hike down to 60% from 77% before the CPI release.
"But because the drop in US inflation was largely driven by the sharp pullback in energy prices, the inflation relief will probably not last long," Ozkardeskaya says.
"Middle East tensions are escalating. The US President walked back his latest – and perhaps one of the most absurd proposals yet – to charge a 20% fee on all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz (we did the math yesterday: it would amount to a $30–34 million fee per oil tanker and would be against international law).
"Yet strikes in the region continue, energy infrastructure is being damaged, and oil and gas prices are rising. US crude is consolidating its rebound near $80 per barrel, Brent is trading near $85pb. NYMEX natural gas remains stable below $3, yet European TTF futures are up more than 30% since the June dip."
Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid notes that the 10-year US Treasury yield traded low as 4.521% post-CPI but it then climbed somewhat, "in part as Fed chair Kevin Warsh continued to strike a tough note on inflation as he delivered his first testimony as Chair before the House Financial Services Committee".
Reid says Warsh refrained from any direct policy guidance, but stressed that the softer CPI print did not mean "mission accomplished".
The central bank chief also said that "members of our Committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation".
In all, says Reid, "the new Chair looked to cement inflation-fighting credibility. But he was fortunate to be making these tough remarks in a day of soft CPI, with the inflation data easing the pressure for any immediate policy tightening".
FTSE 100 Live pre-open
London and European shares are predicted to struggle on Wednesday morning, in contrast to gains for most Asian and US stocks after a shift in rate expectations following US inflation data yesterday.
The FTSE 100 is expected to open around 40 points lower, according to the futures market, more than erasing the 31 points added yesterday when the index closed at 10,529.39.
Wall Street enjoyed a positive session overnight, following the biggest monthly fall in US CPI inflation for six years, which boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates this month.
The Nasdaq led the gains, climbing 0.9% as semiconductor stocks rallied, while the S&P 500 added 0.4% and the Dow Jones edged up just 10 points, held back by a big fall for IBM.
Asian markets are mostly higher, led by the tech sector, with Korea's Kospi jumping 7.3% and Japan's Nikkei up 1.45%, with US futures also positive, again led by the tech-powered Nasdaq, up 0.8% currently.
