UBS expects investors to pay little attention to GSK PLC's (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) second-quarter results, with focus shifting instead to a strategy update from new chief executive Luke Miels.
The bank reiterated its 'neutra'l rating on GSK ahead of results and a capital markets day due on 28 July.
UBS set a 12-month price target of 1,940 pence, close to the 1,957 pence at which the shares closed on 10 July.
Its forecasts sit about 1% below consensus on second-quarter sales, operating profit and earnings.
The bank said the central debate was whether Miels could set out a credible path to GSK's target of more than £40 billion in risk-adjusted sales by 2031.
UBS does not expect that target to change, but flagged a shortfall of more than £4 billion between the company's ambition and its own and consensus forecasts.
The bank expects an update on how GSK is reprioritising its pipeline after its recent acquisition of Nuvalent.
UBS also pointed to weakness in the specialty and respiratory businesses seen in the first quarter.
It flagged a slowdown in United States prescriptions for the respiratory treatments Trelegy, Breo and Anoro so far in 2026.
The bank named late-stage data on the chronic cough treatment camlipixant as an important focus, noting GSK's peak sales ambition of more than £2.5 billion against its own forecast of £1.1 billion.
UBS also highlighted a Delaware court trial running from 14 to 17 July over AnaptysBio's contract claims relating to the cancer drug Jemperli.
The bank said outcomes could range from no change to existing terms to, in an extreme scenario, GSK losing rights to the drug.
UBS forecasts full-year revenue of £33.4 billion, up from £32.7 billion in 2025, and core earnings of 175.5 pence a share.
That growth of about 4% sits well below the company's guidance for a 7% to 9% increase at constant currency.
UBS makes a market in GSK securities and holds a long position of 0.5% or more in its shares.
