Traders on the prediction market Polymarket see gold rising further this month but stopping short of a return to its January peak, with bets clustering around a July high of $4,300 an ounce.
Gold was trading at around $4,127 on Tuesday, up more than 3% on the day, as the metal continued to recover from a bruising first half of the year.
Bettors put a 54% probability on the price touching $4,300 at some point in July.
The odds thin out quickly above that level, at 31% for $4,400 and 18% for $4,500.
A move back to $4,600 was given just a 6% chance.
The wagers reflect a market that has stabilised rather than roared back.
Gold soared to a record above $5,500 an ounce in January before shedding more than a quarter of its value, briefly dropping below $4,000 in late June.
That slump ranked among its worst quarterly declines in over a decade.
The reversal was driven by rising bond yields, a stronger dollar and a rotation back into technology stocks, which drew investors away from defensive assets.
Higher-for-longer interest rates have also weighed on gold, which pays no yield and looks less attractive when real rates climb.
The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% through the first half of the year, and some officials have signalled a readiness to raise it further.
Weaker-than-expected US jobs data has since tempered those expectations, offering the metal some support.
Longer-term, several major banks remain bullish.
JP Morgan has forecast prices near $6,300 by the end of 2026, while UBS has argued the sell-off created an opening for long-term buyers.
Both cite sustained central bank buying, which added more than 1,000 tonnes to reserves last year.
