UBS has cut its platinum price forecasts by US$300 an ounce after warning that weak investment demand could push the market into surplus by the end of the year.
The Swiss bank said platinum has “lost some of its appeal” in 2026, with the metal down 21% after a 125% rally last year.
UBS previously expected the platinum market to be broadly balanced this year, but now sees a “risk of a surplus” as investors remain on the sidelines and demand softens across key segments.
The note pointed to a tougher backdrop for gold, including inflation concerns, expectations for US rate hikes and a stronger dollar, which has also weighed on platinum given the two metals’ historic correlation.
Platinum has also faced pressure from the same forces hitting palladium. UBS said US tariff-related dislocations that drove metal flows from Europe to the US and pushed lease rates higher last year have now eased, with lease rates falling considerably.
Demand from the auto sector is another drag, with UBS expecting fewer internal-combustion-engine vehicles to be produced this year. Platinum’s premium to palladium could also eventually encourage substitution in autocatalyst production, the bank added.
Jewellery demand has weakened following a strong 2025, hurt by high prices, while concerns about economic growth continue to weigh on consumption. ETF holdings have fallen by around 0.5 million ounces this year to roughly 2.8 million ounces.
UBS now forecasts platinum at US$1,700/oz in September and December 2026, rising to US$1,800/oz by March and June 2027. Spot was US$1,618/oz on 26 June.
Despite the downgrade, UBS said it retained a “moderately constructive outlook” for platinum, supported by its expectation that gold prices will rise in the coming months.
