SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX)’s closely watched public debut is off to a flying start.
The stock, trading under $SPCX, opened at $150 after pricing its IPO at $135 — already signaling strong demand right out of the gate. Before the open, CNBC reported indications of a $175 launch price, underscoring just how heated expectations had become heading into the listing.
Since trading began, momentum has stayed firm. The shares have climbed to about $159.18, up roughly 18% in the first stretch of trading as investors pile into what is shaping up to be one of the most closely followed IPOs in years.
It’s a volatile but upbeat start, with early price action suggesting the market is still trying to find equilibrium after a heavily anticipated debut.
Beyond the price action, analysts are already framing the listing as more than just an IPO story.
Eric Chia, financial markets analyst at Exness, pointed to what he called “the multiplier nobody can ignore,” arguing that while Starlink and AI compute deals are already generating substantial revenue momentum, the real inflection point sits elsewhere.
“Starlink generates revenue. The AI compute deals generate headlines. But the catalyst that sits at the intersection of all three business segments… is Starship,” he said.
Chia argued that SpaceX’s bull case is increasingly dependent not just on launch economics, but on whether Starship can successfully scale. A working commercial system, he noted, would accelerate Starlink’s next-generation deployment, enable orbital data center buildouts, and structurally lower costs across multiple segments simultaneously.
He also highlighted the scale already embedded in expectations, pointing to roughly $26 billion in annualised contracted revenue from AI compute partnerships alone, independent of rocket launches.
But Chia also cautioned that “a stock is not just a business, it is a business plus a price,” warning that SpaceX is entering public markets at what he described as “the most demanding valuation multiple ever attached to a new listing,” at a time when macro risks — from higher-for-longer rates to geopolitical shocks — remain firmly in play.
In the near term, however, he sees momentum as self-reinforcing. With what he estimates as “$250 billion in demand chasing a $75 billion raise,” early trading may be dominated by mechanical buying pressure that overwhelms macro concerns.
Still, he warned the real test comes later. “The question is not Day 1. The question is Month 3, Month 6, and Month 12,” he said, adding that lock-up expirations and fading IPO enthusiasm will eventually force the stock to stand on fundamentals rather than narrative.
For traders, that sets up a familiar tension: strong early momentum versus a much harder long-term proving ground.
