The filing sets a $1.785 trillion implied market capitalisation at the $135 offer price, but prediction market traders are already betting heavily that SpaceX will blow straight through that figure the moment it starts trading on 12 June.
Data from Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market, shows traders pricing a 75% probability that SpaceX closes its first trading day above $2 trillion, and a 64% chance it reaches $2.2 trillion before the opening session ends.
The probability of it closing above $1.8 trillion, barely a step up from the IPO valuation, stands at 90%.
Almost nobody, it seems, is betting on a first-day disappointment.
The market's confidence likely reflects the mechanics of large-cap index inclusion as much as pure enthusiasm for the SpaceX story, with Nasdaq fast-entry rules potentially making the company eligible for Nasdaq-100 inclusion after just 15 trading days.
That prospect would trigger automatic buying from the vast ecosystem of tracker funds and exchange-traded funds that replicate the index.
But the Polymarket data also captures something more visceral: the sense that SpaceX, unlike most IPOs, arrives at market with a narrative that transcends conventional equity valuation.
This is a company with a profitable satellite internet business in Starlink, a reusable rocket monopoly in commercial launch, an artificial intelligence division absorbed from xAI, and a chief executive who has publicly stated his intention to colonise Mars and build data centres in orbit.
At $2 trillion, SpaceX would instantly eclipse Meta Platforms, currently valued at around $1.58 trillion and Elon Musk-run Tesla, though it would still sit well short of Amazon at approximately $2.7 trillion.
But it would still be a long way behind Nvidia and Alphabet, number one and number two in the pecking order, with valuations of $5.4 trillion and $4.6 trillion, respectively.
The sceptical case, that a 4.2% public float, an AI unit losing $2.5 billion a quarter, and a governance structure giving Musk 85% of voting rights represent serious risks for public investors, has not disappeared.
But with the roadshow underway, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley marshalling institutional demand, and prediction market traders overwhelmingly positioned for a stratospheric debut, the question is no longer whether SpaceX gets off the launchpad.
The question, as the Polymarket data makes plain, is just how high this rocket flies.
