- FTSE 100 down 4 points to 10,680
- Banks hit by read-across from US finance sector falls
- Croda and ConvaTec top leaderboard after results
5:05pm: Footsie steady
London stocks were little changed at Tuesday’s close, down 4 points at 10,680. Over on Wall Street, stocks bounced back after Monday’s selloff, with the Nasdaq up 1%, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both adding 0.7%.
“Most global stock indices recovered despite mixed economic data while cryptocurrencies stayed under pressure amid investor fatigue,” IG chief technical analyst Axel Rudolph said. “While Bitcoin dipped below the $63,000 mark, BNB and Ether traded within a whisker of their early February lows, a fall through which may trigger another wave of selling.”
4.07pm: London blue-chips losing momentum
The FTSE 100 is losing momentum as Wall Street stocks regain theirs.
Melrose Industries, the aerospace parts supplier, is leading the fallers, down 3.9%, while engine maker Rolls-Royce is down 1.4%.
Rentokil Initial is next, down 2.7% after a Deutsche downgrade.
Property developers British Land and Land Securities have sunk in among the worst fallers, while losses for banks have eased a little.
StanChart, which published results today, is the worst performing of the banks, despite hiking its dividend more than expected.
Top of the leaderboard remains roughly the same, ConvaTec up 10.3%, followed by Croda International, up 7.8%.
Next are Antofagasta, Experian, Compassd, DCC, Halma and United Utilities.
3.42am: US consumer confidence improves
US consumer confidence has improved this month, helped by stronger expectations.
The latest reading from the Conference Board revealed the index for February climbed to 91.2 from an upwardly revised 89 last month.
The present situation index decreased by 1.8 points to 120.0 in February, while the expectations index rose 4.8 points to 72.0.
"Confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board.
"Four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8)."
The main Wall Street indices have all picked up since the early stuttering, with the Nasdaq up 0.9% now.
3.28pm: New tariffs to have limited downside for UK and EU
Goldman Sachs reckons the recent US tariff developments have only limited implications for Europe, despite fresh uncertainty.
President Trump new “global tariff” of 10% started today under Section 122 of the Trade Act, with Goldman estimates that if this is lifted to 15%, net of exemptions, it would lift the US effective tariff rate on EU imports by 0.9 percentage points to 12.1% and by 2.9 points to 10.9% for the UK.
The new tariff would apply to roughly half of US imports from the EU and about 60% from the UK, with energy and pharmaceuticals still exempt.
Goldman noted that EU and UK exports to the US are already down 10-20% from 2024 averages, suggesting much of the tariff impact has already been felt.
As a result, the bank expects only “limited further downside” to European exports and manufacturing, though policy uncertainty remains high ahead of possible further US action after July.
2.55pm: Wall Street also in green
US stocks are moving higher in early trades, after an initial wobble.
The Dow Jones is up 0.7%, followed by the Nasdaq at 0.% and the S&P 500 at 0.3%.
Leading the Dow's risers are rebounding Salesforce and IBM, up 4.9% and 4.3%.
Then comes Home Depot after its earnings, followed by Apple, Nike and Disney, all up over 2%.
Among the top S&P movers are AMD, Ford, IBM, Salesforce and DoorDash.
Back in London, the Footsie has also moved higher.
1.38pm: FTSE in the green
The FTSE 100 has battled into positive territory.
Among the risers there are several defensive names, including utilities, drugmakers and base metals miners.
Banks and financials continues to remain the main fallers.
12.40pm: Dollar strengthening, while Bitcoin extends decline
The US dollar is up marginally today, but largely flat over the past few days, after an undulating recovery over the past month.
Market analyst Kenny Polcari at Slatestone sees the dollar index continuing to hug a trendline around 97.95 "unable to break higher, for now".
"If it clears that level, the next real test is 98.60, where intermediate and long-term resistance live. My sense is the first attempt gets rejected. But once we bust up and thru then look for the dollar to test 100 and that should pressure commodities, tighten financial conditions for foreign borrowers, and adds another layer to this repricing."
Bitcoin is down another 5% today, and 29% over the past month.
The leading crypto has dropped below $63,000, with the fall "highlighting deeper structural fragility", says David Morrison at Trade Nation.
"Technical charts show a developing head-and-shoulders pattern, with the $60,000 level emerging as a critical support zone.
"The selloff has coincided with the longest miner capitulation phase of the year, according to Glassnode data, as falling revenues force sustained reserve selling.
"Institutional demand has also deteriorated, with ETF flows weakening further, compounding downside pressure and increasing the risk of a decisive break lower."
12.16pm: US futures in the green
The Footsie is almost back to flat, led by utilities and cyclical consumer names, while Wall Street futures are positive.
Nasdaq futures are up 0.4%, followed by those for the Dow Jones up 0.3% and S&P 500 at 0.2%.
AMD is a big mover in pre-market trading, up 12% after Meta struck a multi-year partnership to build vast new AI data centres, deploying up to 6GW of advanced graphics processors.
11.33am: Raspberry Pi keeps rebounding
Raspberry Pi shares are up another 12%, having risen 64% over the past month (after falling 54% last year), a rally that began as investors caught onto the emergence of OpenClaw, an AI agent capable of managing emails, booking meetings and buying groceries, powered by cheap hardware such as the UK's company's mini-computer.
In a single day, apparently, Chinese engineers have now cloned the agent, with the new 'PicoClaw' memory footprint shrunk to less than 10 megabytes from the 1GB required by OpenClawRAM to operate.
The new code was 95% written by AI, with this framing having amplified the story considerably on social media, where PicoClaw has become a talking point well beyond the usual developer circles.
It is that chatter, analysts and observers have noted, that is now sustaining Raspberry Pi's share price momentum.
11.03am: Rentokil hit by downgrade
Rentokil Initial is bottom of the Footsie fallers after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from 'buy' to 'hold'.
Analyst James Beard says the company is "a global market leader in an attractive and defensive category, and is a business that we think should deliver growth at least in-line with the industry and a margin profile that befits a market leader in the space".
But the bank's analysis shows its pest control category is "significantly under-earning compared to the leading international peers".
Beard says he awaits more details from the incoming CEO about how the business can close the growth and margin gap to peers, but is already concerned that increased investment could place pressure on near-term forecasts.
10.16am: Three issues the market is considering
There are three main issues for investors are considering right now, says market analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo: one is the impact of AI on the software and tech spaces, which is "spreading contagion risk" across equity and credit markets; two is macro uncertainty from the "tariff mess and possible risks of an escalatory trade war again"; and third is fears about what's going on under the hood of private credit markets amid the fallout from Blue Owl.
While Friday’s announcement striking down the use of tariffs under IEEPA created a short-term relief rally for stocks, the backlash from the EU and UK "might have had some impact", Wilson says.
"The trade situation is now more ambiguous now than it was a week ago. This may affect investment and capital flows, which seems to have hit financials alongside the US dollar. So we are left with both more ambiguity than before and a greater chance of an escalatory trade war between the US and its main trading partners."
On AI disruption fears, the falls in Workday, Datadog and IBM of 6-13% came after Anthropic said its Claude Code could speed up COBOL, a programming language.
"US private capital groups who have been buyers of these software stocks – such as Ares, KKR and Blackstone – were among the big fallers as concerns about exposure to software loans and last week’s announcement from Blue Owl to halt redemptions and sell over $1bn in loans to insurers and large pension funds. This spilled over into the UK with the likes of Pershing Square, ICG and Bridgepoint among the biggest decliners yesterday among the larger caps."
This has become a "crazy stock-pickers market" as AI wobbles and tariff worries lead to considerable damage in some corners of the market (financials, tech, software, insurers, asset managers, consumer cyclicals and communication services) and strength elsewhere (healthcare, energy, materials, consumer defensives and utilities).
"The market can make new highs without its generals but it's going to be tough from here. Nvidia could act as a further trigger with its earnings this week."
US earnings later include Home Depot, Workday, HPQ, Lucid, Cava and AMC, with data including US consumer confidence and Trump's State of the Union address, which might offer some further clues about the specifics of US trade policy intentions.
9.55am: Out of Oxford BioMedica'shands for now
Oxford BioMedica shares dropped 9% as a robust full-year trading update failed to deliver what some investors were really waiting for: an update on a potential takeover approach from private equity giant EQT.
With the put up or shut up deadline falling on 25 February, the market's patience is running thin.
The cell and gene therapy contract manufacturer reported 2025 revenues at the top end of guidance, at £166-169 million, representing growth of around 30% on the prior year.
"This is a robust update," said Miles Dixon at Peel Hunt, "but with bid speculation still in the air, we do not expect there to be much share price movement today."
9.26am: Fallers outweighing the risers
The FTSE 100 seems to be holding at a small deficit of just over 20 points, as there are a number of heavyweight fallers, especially banks.
Leading the fallers are Rentokil Initial, down 2.8%; Fresnillo, down 2.3%; Barclays, down 2%; RELX, down 1.6%, Lloyds Banking and NatWest Group, both down around 1.4%; and Rolls-Royce, down 1.3%. HSBC, Standard Chartered are also down over 1%.
Waiting for more explanations of why the banks are down, but it's worth noting that Capital One, American Express, Mastercard and Visa all had big falls overnight.
Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank notes that those names were mentioned in a Citrini Research memo from last week entitled "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis", which outlined a hypothetical scenario in which AI adoption drives the US unemployment rate into double digits by mid 2028 (also mentioned earlier).
"The note had been forwarded to me around ten times late last week and was ubiquitous across my social media feeds, so it was something of a surprise to see it cited as the catalyst for the sudden mid afternoon sell off in London," says Reid.
"As with Matt Schumer’s viral 'Something big is happening' piece a few weeks ago — which was also linked to significant equity losses — the argument leans heavily on narrative and emotion rather than hard evidence. That doesn’t mean it will ultimately be wrong, but in both cases the vibes to substance ratio is undeniably high. I’ll stop there, before anyone accuses my own research of the same thing."
Anyhow, there's been a renewed sell-off in stocks perceived to be at risk from AI disruption yesterday and again today, with software and data stocks again affected, including Workday, Adobe and Oracle.
At the top end are ConvaTec and Croda on the back of their results.
On ConvaTec, UBS analyst Graham Doyle says: "There is a lot in this print, but the net of it is that consensus estimates should move up slightly for 2026 and more materially for 2027.
"Against a multiple that is pretty much the lowest since 2019 and pricing-in concerns on the ability to even meet existing consensus forecasts, should mean the print is well received."
9.01am: Unite(d) we fall
Unite shares fell over 9% in early trading as the student accommodation developer's £100 million share buyback was not enough to sweeten the pill for investors as it reported earnings at the bottom end of guidance for 2025 and a softer outlook for 2026.
Following a decline in occupancy, the group is focusing on shifting the weighting of the portfolio towards higher tariff universities where there is greater demand, with a disposal in London announced as part of a target to accelerate sales to £300-400 million per year, with some development projects also put on hold or cancelled.
Broker Stifel said: "Following declines in occupancy the company remains committed to its self-help measures including a share buy-back and an accelerated disposal programme."
On the shift towards higher tariff universities, these assets currently comprise 67% of the portfolio and Unite is targeting 80%.
"Guidance for FY26 is consistent with that given at the investor event in November albeit now at 'the lower end'. This should see earnings decline by 7-10% for FY26 with occupancy for the 2026/27 academic year in the 93-96% range. The EPS guidance range is 41.5-43p, and we are forecasting 42.9p (Consensus: 44.1p)."
8.41am: How much AI caution is the right amount?
London stocks are being hit as "herd mentality stokes anxiety around the threats from artificial intelligence", says market analyst Derren Nathan at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Companies such as Sage, RELX, Experian and the London Stock Exchange Group are the ones he cites.
"Warren Buffett’s mantra of being greedy in times of fear could serve investors well here, as long as they’re prepared to hold for the long-term."
However, Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, warns investors not to dismiss the recent AI scare trade after sharp falls in software, payments and logistics stocks.
"Markets are delivering a serious signal. Capital is being repriced around the implications of AI and tech in real time,” he says.
Green cautions that "investors who treat this as ‘noise’ are underestimating the scale of structural change now underway”, with markets shifting from pricing AI as upside to assessing “displacement risk”.
He concludes: "The AI scare trade signals the emergence of a more selective market phase. Automation will continue to compress uniform services [ie offerings that follow a set process and don’t vary much between clients], while complexity and strategic judgement command greater value.
"Investors and consumers who recognize that distinction early will be better positioned as AI and tech reshape pricing power, competitive dynamics, and consolidation patterns across the global economy.”.”
8.15am: FTSE opens lower as banks drop
The FTSE 100 has slipped lower, down 24 points to 10,660.8 in opening trades, dragged down by banks, miners and some 'AI fear' selling.
Barclays and Lloyds Banking Group are down 1.9% and 1.8%, with NatWest and HSBC both down more than 1%. Is this further spillover from the Blue Owl private credit worries (see below)?
Also Rightmove, RELX, LSEG and Sage Group are down between 2% and 1%.
Among the miners, Fresnillo and Fresnillo are down either side of 1% as gold retreats a little but still sits above $5,165 an ounce.
7.58am: New 10% tariffs started overnight
Donald Trump's new 10% global levy came into force from midnight US Eastern Time, but he has delayed plans for a steeper 15% tariff.
According to reports, the move follows a backlash from several US partners, including the EU and the UK, over the higher proposed rate.
The White House signalled that the 15% tariff has not been dropped altogether. “It is being worked on and will come later,” an official said, without giving a timetable.
Yesterday the WSJ and Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration was preparing new Section 232 national security investigations into several industries including batteries, telecom equipment and industrial chemicals.
President Trump will deliver the State of the Union address tonight, with some expecting more news on the next steps for US tariffs.
Also, recall that Trump posted yesterday that countries that "play games" would "be met with a much higher tariff, and worse, than that which they just recently agreed to".
7.45am: Croda profits at top end
Croda International has reported profits at the top end of its guidance and set out how it plans to improve profit margins over the next three years, as the chemicals and ingredients group said it was encouraged by early progress on its turnaround despite slower sales growth in the second half of the year.
Sales for 2025 rose 4.4% to £1.7 billion, or 6.6% on a constant currency basis, while adjusted operating profit increased 7.9% to £295.3 million, as the margin edged up to 17.4% from 17.2%.
The FTSE 250 group is targeting organic sales growth of 3-6% a year to 2028, along with adjusted operating margins above 20%, a free cash flow-to-sales ratio above 12% and return on invested capital above 10%.
7.31am: Blue Owl spills over to FTSE 350
Yesterday afternoon the leading fallers in the FTSE 350 included names like ICG, Pershing Square, Bridgepoint and Molten Venture.
This is linked to worries about a spillover from the private credit market in the US, stemming from Blue Owl Capital, a major US alternative asset manager specialising in private credit, including loans to software companies, which announced late last week that it would halt redemptions and sell more than $1 billion in loans to insurers and large pension funds to manage liquidity pressures.
"The core issue is a classic liquidity mismatch," explains our friend Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote, "as private credit became more accessible to smaller investors with shorter time horizons, the risk of redemption pressure increased. When capital retreats amid rising leverage concerns, inflows and outflows no longer align. Private markets are not designed for sudden exits.
"However, selling software-backed loans to insurers and pension funds effectively transfers that leverage — and that risk — to institutions that safeguard long-term household savings. While these are long-horizon investors, their broad exposure means that any mispricing of risk could have far-reaching consequences.
"The comparison with past credit cycles is uncomfortable: when leverage migrates rather than disappears, vulnerabilities can resurface elsewhere in the system (think of subprime crisis). If such stress were to build, AI would not be the culprit — financial structuring would.
"In short, when a heavyweight such as Blue Owl — focused on supposedly resilient enterprise software debt — restricts redemptions, it signals that leverage may be catching up with slowing growth, leaving broader economy vulnerable.
"At the same time, heavy AI-related capital expenditure by Big Tech is no longer unequivocally reassuring investors. As AI fears spill into non-technology sectors, the rotation trade comes under pressure."
7.23am: Flat start for FTSE predicted
A flat start for the FTSE 100 is predicted on Tuesday on the futures market, as traders mull how much credence to pay to a number of potential red flags being waved around various industries.
The previous day saw the London blue-chip benchmark end two points lower at 10,684.74, as US and EU trade concerns were more apparent in other exchanges, with Germany's DAX falling over 1% as carmakers were hit.
Overnight, the Dow Jones fell 1.7%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.1% and the S&P 500 ended down 1%.
American Express fell more than 7%, Mastercard and Visa lost around 4-5%, DoorDash fell around 6% and Uber dropped over 4% as the AI fear trade spilt over into delivery and payment stocks.
The cause was research from Citrini, explains market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote, which "outlined a hypothetical – not predictive – scenario in which rapid AI disruption could trigger mass white-collar unemployment within two years, leading to weaker spending, software-loan defaults and broader economic contraction".
Following that scenario (perhaps important to note that Citrini stressed it was a “scenario, not a prediction”) to one logical conclusion, where AI destroys jobs and demand, "would ultimately undermine the very incentive to invest in AI," she says. "If no one is employed and no one can consume, there is little reason to produce, whether you are Adobe or McDonald’s. The narrative sounds apocalyptic."
It's all getting complicated, but worth staying with Ozkardeskaya here: "Markets appear to be entering a phase where extreme scenarios generate outsized reactions – with one notable exception that warrants genuine caution: capital flows within the software-financing ecosystem."
More concerning, she says, is that investors are seeking liquidity from instruments tied to software companies, including private credit vehicles, with US company Blue Owl sparking worries. More on that shortly.