Oxford BioMedica PLC (LSE:OXB) shares dropped 9% to 708.12p on Tuesday as a robust full-year trading update failed to deliver what some investors were really waiting for: an update on a potential takeover approach from private equity giant EQT.
With the put up or shut up deadline falling on 25 February, the market's patience is running thin.
The cell and gene therapy contract manufacturer reported 2025 revenues at the top end of guidance, at £166-169 million, representing growth of around 30% on the prior year.
Full-year operating EBITDA is expected at mid-to-high single-digit millions, though that figure includes a larger-than-anticipated non-recurring gain from the October acquisition of a viral vector manufacturing facility in Durham, North Carolina.
Strip that out and underlying EBITDA lands at low single-digit millions, against a £15.3 million loss in 2024.
What the brokers make of it
Both Peel Hunt and Panmure Liberum kept their buy ratings following the update, though they diverge sharply on valuation.
Panmure carries an 800p target price and argues a case can be made for a premium rating, with its EV/sales growth metric pointing to a value of 1,050p. Peel's target sits considerably lower at 451p, well below the current share price.
On the numbers themselves, the two firms are broadly agreed. Panmure noted that the underlying EBITDA of low single-digit millions came in ahead of its own estimate of £2.2 million and comfortably above consensus of £1 million.
Peel flagged a modest 1.5% revenue beat to its £165 million estimate and described the update as solid.
Contracted client orders rose 20% to £224 million, with the revenue backlog climbing from around £150 million to £204 million, providing what Panmure called good visibility into 2026.
OXB closed the year with cash of £96.9 million and net cash of £55.4 million.
The EQT question dominates
The bid overhang is defining how the market reads everything else. OXB's shares were trading around 600p before EQT's interest became public before Christmas, and have since re-rated sharply higher.
Panmure noted that at current levels the stock trades in line with the broader CDMO sector on an EV/Sales basis, meaning the premium is not yet baked in.
Whether EQT agrees with that assessment or walks away will become clear within 24 hours.