- FTSE 100 adds 17 points to 8,697
- Pound climbs to £1.30 for first time since November
- Gold price hits record high and oil rises to two-week high
- Close Brothers tumbles, but Trustpilot and Bytes Technology climb
- All eyes on Trump-Putin call over Ukraine
4.04pm: Markets remain positive, awaiting news on Ukraine call
With nothing yet from the Trump-Putin call, the FTSE 100's gains have slowly ebbed away.
Oil companies and banks have done some heavy lifting, while retailers JD Sports, M&S and Next are clustered near the top of the leaderboard.
As have some of those on the Continent, with Germany's DAX now up 0.8%, having been 1.3% higher earlier.
Across the Atlantic, the S&P 500 is down 1.2%, while the tech-filled Nasdaq is down 1.7%.
Nvidia is down 2.5%, Alphabet is down 2.8%, while Tesla and Meta are down more than 4%.
3.39pm: US-Russia call still going on
Equities are up in Europe and down in the US, while the Ukraine peace call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin continues.
Update: Call still in progress… https://t.co/CTNVULUgbE
— Dan Scavino (@Scavino47) March 18, 2025
The dollar, euro and pound are all holding their breath too.
3.09pm: German parliament approves spending plan
Germany's parliament has approved the incoming coalition government's proposal for a massive increase of spending on infrastructure and defence.
In the Bundestag vote, 513 came out in favour of the proposal to soften the 'debt brake', while 207 were against.
Germany's 2-yr government bond (bund) yield falls marginally after the vote, easing to 2.182% from 2.19% earlier, while the 10-yr bund edged down to 2.821% from 2.843% earlier.
The DAX is up 1%, the FTSE is up 0.2% and France's CAC 0.5%.
Meanwhile, markets and Ukrainians are waiting to see what emerges from the big event in today's geopolitical diary.
*WHITE HOUSE SAYS TRUMP, PUTIN ARE SPEAKING: AP
— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) March 18, 2025
2.28pm: Google's largest ever acquisition
Google parent Alphabet Inc has confirmed it will be acquiring Israeli cloud cybersecurity startup Wiz for $32 billion in cash, in what will be its largest-ever acquisition.
Wiz will become part of Google Cloud once the deal is finalized, aiming to enhance cloud security and multi-cloud capabilities.
Its products will continue to be available across major cloud platforms like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Oracle Cloud.
“Wiz and Google Cloud share a vision to improve security by making it easier and faster for organizations of all types and sizes to protect themselves, end-to-end, across all major clouds,” Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian said in a blog post.
2.11pm: Putin call
Russian President Vladimir Putin has "concluded the closed-door meeting with business", the local Tass news agency has reported.
Presuming this is the call with President Trump. (Correction: it was the preceding item of business before the call.)
How long until news emerges?
1.55pm: US industrial data
US industrial production increased by 0.7% in February, well above the consensus forecast of 0.2%, which economists attributed to firms "front running" ahead of the imposition of tariffs.
US manufacturing output leapt 0.9%, far above the average forecast of 0.3%.
"Manufacturers raced to produce goods in February before large tariffs on imports could be imposed, as well as to meet a temporary tariff-induced spike in orders from households and businesses," says economist Sam Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Output of durable goods jumped by 1.6%, driven mostly by a 8.5% surge in production from the auto sector, which Tombs said stands to be one of the biggest losers if President Trump imposes tariffs of 25% on all imports from Canada and Mexico.
"As a result, it makes sense that auto manufacturers brought forward as much production as feasible in February, most likely adding to inventory for now."
New orders for manufactured goods are "starting to dry up" now that producers are already raising prices in response to the introduction of tariffs on imported components from China, he adds.
The new orders index of the ISM manufacturing survey fell to 48.6 in February, from 55.1 in January, while the same index in the March Empire State survey, released yesterday, plunged to -15, from +11.
"This downturn will gather momentum if Mr. Trump intensifies the trade war next month. Output also likely will undershoot its trend for a while, as producers will fulfill orders from inventory, rather than new production."
Manufacturers are not likely to invest in extra facilities, given that Trump could remove tariffs at a moments’ notice, Tombs added, while some producers will be forced out of business by retaliatory tariffs by foreign governments.
"Accordingly, the chances that new tariffs unlock a wave of investment in domestic manufacturing are remote.
"Instead, some producers will hike their own prices, capturing more profit, while those dependent on imported components will see their margins squeezed. Manufacturing output, therefore, probably has now peaked for the year."
1.46pm: US big tech correction continues
US stocks are getting a paddlin', with the Nasdaq the worst hit as Tesla leads a further slide for the US tech giants.
The Nasdaq Composite index has opened 1.6% lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.9% and the Dow Jones falling 0.6%.
Back in Europe, the DAX is up 0.9% and the FTSE is up 0.4%.
The number of Tesla $TSLA shares being shorted has ticked up 16.3% over the past month to 71.5 Million shares or 2.6% of Tesla’s total shares according to S3 Partners
— Evan (@StockMKTNewz) March 18, 2025
Meanwhile, a group of major carmakers and tech groups have sent a letter calling on President Trump and transportation secretary Sean Duffy to speed a new national framework for self-driving vehicle hardware and software.
"If the federal government fails to act to advance sensible AV policies we will cede our leadership in this economically crucial sector to China," the groups said in the letter, seen and reported by Reuters.
1.02pm: Insolvencies down compared to last year
The number of UK companies calling in the administrators last month was down on a year ago, with the construction, retail and hospitality sectors worst hit.
There were 2,035 insolvencies registered in England and Wales in February 2025, up 3% on January but down 7% on February last year.
Numbers of firms going to the wall last year were slightly lower than the 30-year high seen in 2023.
The Insolvency Service said the construction sector saw 4,031 or 17% of cases, followed by retailers, wholesaler and mechanics at 3,631 or 15% of cases, and accommodation and food service providers at 3,474 or 15% of cases.
Support services at 10% and manufacturing at 8% of cases were next.
"Construction continues to experience the highest number of insolvencies above any other sector, which is to be expected given the ongoing burden of expensive debt and fragile supply chain," says Kelly Boorman, at accountants RSM.
She said the firm's construction clients are seeing due to delays in mobilisation and financial constraints, along with uncertainty in the aftermath of the autumn Budget.
"Businesses are therefore preserving working capital and are yet to see the growth they anticipated in 2025."
12.35pm: Dollar strengthens on housing data
The pound has dived back to $1.295 following the release of some US data.
US housing starts grew 11.2% month-on-month in February, much higher than the 1.4% expected after a decline of 9.8% in January, with the previous month also revised down to a decline of 11.5%.
US building permits continued to decline, down 1.2%, following a 0.6% in January, though this is not as much as the 1.4% consensus estimate.
11.47am: Nvidia conference speech eyed
Today's Nvidia GTC Conference is shaping up to be a wake-up call for tech investors, says analyst Dan Ives at Wedbush.
Despite recent market jitters over Trump-era tariffs and economic uncertainty, he believes the event will refocus attention on the unstoppable force that is the AI revolution.
"Tech stocks have been under significant pressure over the last month as Trump tariffs/policy, worries about the macro, and a general risk-off environment has created a perfect storm for tech stocks.
"We continue to stress it all comes down to the demand drivers in tech around this 4th Industrial Revolution....and this week at Nvidia's GTC in San Jose the Street hears from the Godfather of AI Jensen front and center which we view as the foundation of this AI spending."
He expects Huang will discuss the new Blackwell chip and "off the charts demand" from enterprise customers.
11.04am: ONS inflation basket
The Office for National Statistics has revealed the annual changes to the virtual 'basket' of goods and services it uses to calculate inflation.
New additions to the 700-item basket include virtual reality headsets, which the ONS says has seen growing expenditure that is expected to continue form the £347 million spent in 2024 to reach £520 million by 2029.
Other new additions include yoga mats, men’s sliders (pool sandals) and pulled pork among 23 additions and 15 removals.
In a sad sign for the media industry, local newspaper adverts are one of the items removed, with a decrease in demand for printed adverts placed in local papers as adverts are now usually placed online.
10.34am: German data shows markets 'looking past near-term trade uncertainty'
On the ZEW data earlier, here's Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
"Hope springs eternal in the Eurozone’s largest economy.
"Current conditions remain dire, consistent with weak growth at the start of the year, but the jump in expectations suggests that investors and market analysts are looking past near-term trade uncertainty and toward the boost from fiscal stimulus."
He says this shift aligns with the rise in bund yields, a stronger euro, and an equity rally since the fiscal announcement.
And he acknowledges that all eyes today will be on the crucial Bundestag vote to formally confirm what markets have anticipated for the past month, specifically reforming the debt ceiling to exempt defence spending and approve the €500 billion infrastructure package.
German media reports that the three parties hold a comfortable 31-vote cushion, leaving ample room for some dissenting votes or absences.
"We think the package will pass, but markets are already priced for this outcome. If the package fails to pass, bunds will rally like a bat out of hell, and the euro and EZ equities slump," says Vistesen.
10.23am: Visiting time at the ZEW
The ZEW economic research institute’s monthly economic sentiment index has jumped to 51.6 points this month, up from 26.0 points in February.
It was also above the consensus forecast of 48.1.
The current conditions gauge rose fractionally to -87.6 from -88.5, but below the expected -80.5.
10.15am: Pound hits $1.30 for first time since November
The pound hit $1.30 this morning, but this is more to do with the US dollar weakening.
"US data continues to haunt the dollar," say ING analysts, with no top-tier data likely to steer the greenback today, although there will be "some focus" on industrial production figures for February and housing starts.
"Further downside risks for the dollar may stem from today’s Trump-Putin phone call on Ukraine. Any progress towards Russia accepting the ceasefire plan laid out by the US and Ukraine can add extra pressure on the safe-haven dollar and yen."
The DXY dollar index slipped to below pre-election levels before the Fed meeting tomorrow, which the ING team say "may end up offering some support".
9.54am: German fiscal vote, when and what chances?
In terms of Germany's big vote today, to achieve a two-thirds majority for the reform of the 'debt break' and Friedrich Merz’s bumper fiscal package, his CDU/SPD alliance with the Greens need 489 out of 733 votes in the Bundestag.
There is a "buffer" of 31 votes, notes Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank, adding that his team thinks it is "highly unlikely" that many of these will vote against the package.
The vote is expected to start at 10am with the result "perhaps taking until lunchtime given it's a roll call vote", Reid says.
Assuming the vote is successful, the next stop is the Bundesrat upper house on Friday, where he says it "should also comfortably pass, especially as yesterday Bavaria’s ruling coalition of CSU and Free Voters confirmed they would support the changes".
If so, the German Constitutional Court "is the most likely unknown", says Reid, but as above the expectations are for there to be no objections with more rulings going in favour of the package being allowed to go to a vote yesterday.
Ahead of the vote, the DAX has stormed up 1.3%, with the leaderboard looking like this Bayer +4.27%, Continental +3.67%, Infineon +3.05%, Commerzbank +2.99%, BMW +2.97%, Porsche +2.88%, Deutsche Bank +2.69%, Mercedes-Benz +2.62%, Rheinmetall +2.60% and Zalando +2.58%.
Bonds across the continent have recovered after their recent sell-off, with yields on 10yr German, French and Italian bonds all seeing sizeable declines.
By contrast, US Treasury yields saw more modest moves lower, while December Fed fund futures rose by 4.6bps with 60bps of Fed cuts now priced in by year-end.
"That’s the most hawkish that market pricing has been this month, having traded at 90bps of cuts early in the Asian session last Tuesday morning," Reid notes.
9.30am: European stocks romping higher
London's blue-chip stocks are striding towards a two-week high, up 0.5% so far this morning, with a mix of airlines, miners, retailers, banks and housebuilders among the top risers.
Top of the leaderboard is budget airline easyJet, followed by copper miner Antofagasta and retailer Next.
European shares are being led by the 1.1% gain for Germany's DAX, with the Spanish and Italian benchmarks up 0.9% and France's CAC 40 rising 0.6%.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 is up 0.8%, with UK IT groups Computacenter PLC and Softcat PLC up top, followed by Puma.
Markets are waiting to hear the results of a phone conversation scheduled for today between Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the US pushes for a ceasefire and peace agreement in Ukraine.
The Kremlin says the call will take place between 1300 and 1500 GMT.
"The dialogue comes during a period of relative market stability, with any progress toward peace likely to drive down European gas prices and strengthen the euro," says market analyst Patrick Munnelly at Tickmill Group.
"While Putin’s demands appear familiar, Trump indicated discussions would cover land, power plants, and 'dividing up certain assets', expressing optimism about reaching a potential deal.
"However, European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas commented on Monday that Russia’s conditions for a ceasefire suggest Moscow is not genuinely committed to achieving peace."
8.48am: Gold and black gold
The price of gold is surging this morning, smashing past $3,020 in recent minutes as renewed tensions in the Middle East are cited by traders.
After popping above $3,000 last Friday and yesterday afternoon, the price powered above $3,010 overnight and in the past hour making another leg higher.
"In the current environment, every day seems to offer a new catalyst for the gold price," says Kathleen brooks, research director at XTB.
Oil prices are also higher by 0.8% so far on Tuesday, after military strikes re-started in Gaza.
"While geopolitical tensions can put upward pressure on the oil price, Israel and Gaza are not oil producing nations, so the impact tends to be short-lived," Brooks added.
"The gold price is not hindered by these concerns, and growth fears are fuelling the price surge of the yellow metal.
"In uncertain times, central banks and individuals demand gold, while inflation concerns emanating from President Trump’s tariffs and trade war are also boosting the price of gold."
While gold miners have generally not followed the gold price too closely so far this year, FTSE 100-listed Endeavour Mining is one of the top risers this morning and has risen by over 7% in the past week.
8.25am: Bytes and Trustpilot get good reviews
Trustpilot shares are up 14% on the back of the trading update (see below).
Another big riser on the FTSE 250 is Bytes Technology Group PLC (LSE:BYIT, JSE:BYI), with shares also jumping 14% as it issued a full-year trading update.
After a share dealing misconduct investigation into former CEO Neil Murphy last year and a change in Microsoft incentive plans, analyst Damindu Jayaweera at Peel Hunt said the update "puts fears to rest".
Gross profit is expected to have grown 12% in the financial year ended 28 February 2025, well ahead of the City consensus of 9.2%.
Adjusted EBIT growth was said to be in "the mid-to-high teens", which Jayaweera said implied over 20% profit growth in the second half of the year.
8.13am: Miners power FTSE to early gains as gold pushes to new records
The FTSE 100 has started on the front foot, climbing 24 points to 8,704 in early trades.
A cluster of miners are powering the gain, led by Anglo American, Endeavour Mining and Fresnillo, with the gold price surging to new record highs this morning, moving close to $3,020.
Supermarkets, led by Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury's, are also bouncing back from the losses over the past two session sparked by Asda's potential resurgence.
Fallers are led by water and power companies Severn Trent, United Utilities, SSE and National Grid all down around 0.5%.
7.59am: Euro under scrutiny
The German Bundestag votes on Friedrich Merz’s fiscal spending plan today, with expectations that the Chancellor-in-waiting has secured the two-thirds majority to amend the constitutional 'debt brake'.
A vote takes place in the Bundestag today between 10.35am CET to 3.05pm and the Bundesrat on Friday, following the agreement struck last Friday.
Currency analyst Francesco Pesole at ING said he think developments on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal "will be more impactful on the euro" today.
"Markets will also be closely watching the ZEW survey results, as that is the first set of sentiment indicators following the fiscal spending announcement."
He notes that the index of German economic growth expectations had already accelerated in February ahead of some more contained expectations for fiscal support.
The consensus forecasting a move from 26 to 48, but Pesole says he wouldn’t be surprised with an even bigger number.
"EUR/USD is eyeing 1.100 again. We aren’t convinced there is enough thrust for a decisive break higher, especially as the Fed may fail to trigger much further repricing in the USD curve. Still, we could see the pair move above 1.0950 today."
7.52am: Five-star results for Trustpilot?
Trustpilot Group PLC (LSE:TRST) has topped up its share buyback programme with another £20 million and nudged up its outlook for 2025 after reporting a five-star year for bookings, profitability and cash generation.
We will see in a few minutes if investors and analysts give the company a five-star review.
The online customer feedback platform reported 23% growth in bookings for 2024 to $239 million and underlying profit (EBITDA) jumped 55% to $24 million.
For this year it expects "high teens" revenue growth and guided to adjusted EBITDA "slightly ahead of market expectations".
7.31am: Close Bros swings to loss
Close Brothers Group PLC (LSE:CBG) has swung to a first-half loss of £103.8 million as it made a £165 million provision relating to motor finance commissions, which it warned about last month.
The loss also reflects a 1% fall in income and the impact of complaints handling and other operational and legal costs incurred in relation to the motor finance issue, where the Supreme Court is due to rule early next month.
The lender reported a pro-forma CET1 capital ratio of 13.4% at the 31 January 2025 half-year period, following the boost from the February sale of its asset management business and other actions to maintain capital levels.
Chief executive Mike Morgan talked up the “strength and resilience” of the business model, with an underlying profit made in the banking business and said his priorities included “focusing on greater simplification, improving operational efficiency, and driving sustainable growth”.
7.16am: FTSE 100 on course to extend gains
The FTSE 100 is on course to extend its gains on Tuesday as Ukraine peace talks and the US Federal Reserve meeting are on the agenda.
London's blue-chip index is tipped to add around 24 points on futures markets, having risen almost 48 point to finish at 8,680.3 yesterday.
Overnight, the major US stock indices finished higher despite a 1% decline for the 'Magnificient 7' tech giants, led by a near-5% fall for Tesla and 1.8% drop for Nvidia, whose boss gives a big presentation later today.
As a result the Dow Jones rose 0.85%, the S&P 500 added 0.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq just 0.3%.
Asian markets are in green this morning, with gains again led by the Hang Seng and Nikkei, up 2.2% and 1.2%.
Market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote Bank says: "there is growing hope that the US efforts to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be successful - a development that could restore trade relations between Russia and the EU, ease energy prices in Europe and support growth."
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are due to speak this afternoon.
5am: What to watch on Tuesday
Close Brothers investors will be braced for provisions for the ongoing motor finance inquiry but these results are far from the end of the story...read more
Trustpilot shares have been on the slide in the run-up to results, but some analysts see no reason for the underperformance versus the rest of the sector...read more
Announcements due on 18 March:
Interims: Close Brothers Group PLC, Eagle Eye Solutions Group PLC
Finals: Atalaya Mining PLC, Computacenter PLC, Fintel PLC, Genel Energy PLC, H&T Group PLC, Harworth Group PLC, Light Science Technologies Holdings PLC, Midwich Group PLC, Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) Ltd, Pebble Group PLC, RM PLC, Sabre Insurance Group PLC, Sig PLC, Trustpilot Group PLC, Workspace Group PLC, YU Group PLC
US earnings: Xpeng Inc, Tencent Music
AGMs: Gresham House Renewable Energy
Economic news: Balance of Trade (EU), ZEW Economic Sentiment (EU), Building Permits (US), Housing Starts (US), Industrial Production (US), Business Inventories (US)