JP Morgan has turned more positive on BP, upgrading the oil major to "overweight" and lifting its price target by 20% to 675p, implying around 25% upside.
The bank framed the call as a "road to redemption" for a company whose recent history it described as chequered, citing operational and strategic inconsistencies and a strained balance sheet.
Analyst Matthew Lofting argued that a combination of supportive macro conditions and internal renewal now offered a major opportunity to reduce BP's sensitivity to the oil price cycle and strengthen its fundamentals into 2028.
Repairing the balance sheet is the essential starting point, according to the bank.
It expects BP's debt reduction to gather pace from the second half of 2026, with gearing falling back into line with peers by the end of 2027, assuming a Brent oil price of no more than $75 a barrel.
There could be considerable upside if oil prices hold higher than that.
JP Morgan also sees value in BP's restructuring drive, which it reckons is worth the equivalent of a high-single-digit percentage annual growth in underlying earnings per share over three years.
The bank said BP's growth options for the 2030s were improving on both an absolute and risk-adjusted basis.
It put BP's free cash flow yield for 2027 at 11%, based on $75 Brent and refining margins near $20, with earnings shifting about 180 basis points for every $10 change in the oil price.
In current conditions, the bank argued, BP offered an attractive mix of low direct exposure to the Middle East, competitive refining and valuable trading operations.
The upgrade marks a notable vote of confidence in BP as it works to rebuild credibility with investors after a turbulent stretch.
