Jefferies has reiterated its 'buy' rating on AstraZeneca, the FTSE 100 pharmaceuticals giant, ahead of third-quarter results, forecasting a modest earnings beat and flagging the approaching readout of the AVANZAR lung cancer trial as the next major catalyst for the shares.
The US investment bank carries a 1,750p price target on AstraZeneca, implying upside of around 46% from the current price of 11,934p.
Jefferies is 1% ahead of consensus on third-quarter revenues and 3% ahead on core earnings before interest and tax (EBIT), supported by higher alliance revenues, modestly lower operating costs, and stronger royalty contributions.
The broker noted that US sales of diabetes drug Farxiga have eroded faster than expected and that volumes for ovarian cancer treatment Lynparza appear soft, but said these headwinds are more than offset elsewhere.
Despite the anticipated beat, Jefferies expects management to reiterate full-year 2026 guidance rather than upgrade it.
The more significant near-term focus is AVANZAR, a Phase III trial evaluating a treatment in biomarker-positive lung cancer patients, with results expected in the second half of 2026.
Jefferies said recent management commentary supports its view that AVANZAR is "reasonably likely" to deliver a competitive progression-free survival benefit, and argued that the timeline of the expected readout is itself inconsistent with a bearish outcome on efficacy.
Looking further ahead, the broker addressed a common investor question about AstraZeneca's growth trajectory beyond its $80 billion 2030 revenue target.
It argues that its antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) pipeline and a series of platform readouts due this year provide sufficient runway to sustain revenue growth of around 3% annually post-2030.
Jefferies estimates AstraZeneca needs to de-risk approximately $10 billion of incremental revenues by 2034 to maintain that trajectory, which it considers "reasonably likely" given the company's 2027 catalyst pipeline.
