JP Morgan has begun coverage of Metlen Energy & Metals, the Greek conglomerate now listed in London, with an "overweight" rating and a price target of €64 a share, implying roughly 30% upside.
The bank cast Metlen, valued at around €6.8 billion, as an attractive play on European energy, with a compelling pipeline of organic growth.
Analysts Patrick Jones and Rosie Jia highlighted the company's ambition to more than double group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to between €1.9 billion and €2.1 billion over the medium term.
About 60% of that growth is expected to come from brownfield expansions in its metals and energy divisions, with the remaining 40% from newer ventures in gallium, recycled metals and defence equipment.
Even on a more conservative base case, the bank forecasts EBITDA growth of about 20% a year to 2028.
That underpins its sum-of-the-parts valuation of €64 a share.
Should Metlen deliver on all its growth targets on time and on budget, JP Morgan reckons that could add another 10% to its medium-term earnings forecasts, pointing to a "blue sky" value of €76 a share, or around 60% upside.
The bank noted that Metlen's exposure to aluminium and alumina prices is largely hedged through the medium term.
Its energy arm, by contrast, offers near-term positive leverage to electricity and natural gas prices, at a time when energy markets remain tight.
Metlen, formerly known as Mytilineos, moved its main listing to London earlier as it sought access to a deeper pool of international investors.
The company spans power generation, metals production and engineering, and has been expanding into areas linked to the energy transition and critical raw materials.
The upgrade adds a fresh vote of confidence in its growth strategy.
