Before we publish a new 2021/2022 edition of the Xmas tips feature (watch this space!), here’s a wrap-up of last year’s friendly competition.
If you’re new to it, this time last year we asked a variety of stock market professionals, investment writers and bloggers to suggest their top investment idea for 2021.
Looking back at the results, with 51 weeks gone, all investments generated a positive return and there were no embarrassing shockers, though maybe a pulled hamstring here or there.
Here is the final medal roster:
1st place:
SkinBioTherapeutics PLC – Andrew Hore, editor of the AIM Journal
AIM:SBTX up 158% from 15.5p to 40p
Having raced to an early lead, much like unfancied Leicester City in the 2015/16 Premier League, young Kenyan runner Sammy Wanjiru in the Beijing 2008 marathon or a solo breakaway from cyclist Matej Mohorič in this year's Tour de France, Andrew’s small cap pick held on to romp home in first place.
While the shares could not hold onto the 300%-plus advantage at the halfway stage, a double-and-a-half gain is a lot more than most investors would hope for in one year.
Let's hear from our winning tipster, Andrew: "The SkinBioTherapeutics share price soared on the back of the AxisBiotix-Ps food supplement development as a treatment for psoriasis and the subsequent launch in October. The share price was hit when Cenkos reduced the forecast margin for the product...There is still significant potential for AxisBiotix-Ps and the other products in development."
2nd place:
Cameco Corporation – Vince Stanzione, financial trader and author of The Millionaire Dropout
TSX:CCO, NYSE:CCJ up 60% from US$13.56 to US$21.73
Let’s go track-side and hear from breathless runner-up Vince: “Very happy with last year’s uranium stocks which I continue to personally hold, Cameco and Energy Fuels, which both did well. My biggest personal uranium holdings are the North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF (NYSEARCA:URNM), which gives me a spread of uranium companies, and the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSE:U.UN) and like Homer Simpson I am looking for another good year uranium as it comes back into fashion as a credible and clean way [Ed – relatively!] to generate electricity.”
3rd place:
Berkshire Hathaway – Peter Sleep, senior investment manager at 7IM
NYSE:BRK.B up 33.7% from US$224.24 to US$300.17
The shares were pretty flat since May but Peter hung on to the top-three place he held at the halfway stage.
As he said in June, this is an investment that he would be happy to keep holding as it is “the sort of company that should be held for years rather than months”.
European places
Halma PLC – Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG
LSE:HLMA up 30.1% from 2,398p to 3,120p
At the half-way stage, Chris was close to last place even as Halma had quietly as ever continued its solid buy-and-build performance, as in recent years.
But shares in the safety equipment firm have not stopped climbing to new all-time highs, driven no doubt by long-term growth drivers for increasing safety regulation, medical care and pollution control, to take a top half position in the race’s final few months.
NatWest Group PLC – Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor
LSE:NWG up 28.3% from 169.5p to 217.4p
A mid-table finish for Richard, who says he is quite happy with the return, boosted lately by the Bank of England’s rate hike. The shares, it should be noted, are still below where they were pre-pandemic.
Mid-table
Fidelity Special Values PLC - tipped by Ryan Hughes, AJ Bell’s head of active portfolios
LSE:FSV up 22.3% from 239.5p to 293p
With the fund comfortably outperforming the FTSE All Share index, Ryan said he was happy with how his selection has performed.
“This outperformance has been helped by meaningful exposure in small and mid-cap names while astute use of gearing has also been beneficial. Despite this outperformance, manager Alex Wright still sees huge value in UK stocks which continue to trade at a substantial discount to overseas markets and with interest rates likely to increase, this may provide another tailwind for UK value investing beyond the end of 2021.”
iShares Electric Vehicles and Driving Technology ETF – Oliver Haill, Proactive Investors
LON:ECAR up 17% from US$7.01 to $8.2
Now I’ll hand over to me for my comment: “At least I wasn’t embarrassed and, like a good host, I have also not outshone all my guests. I missed the boat with the main jump in the fund’s value, which was in the middle of 2020 on the back of Tesla’s share price going loco. But for anyone who owns the ETF I think perhaps the big risk of Elon Musk’s company being caught up by old and new rivals has been reduced as the portfolio is well balanced to avoid such company-specific risk, with chipmakers and semiconductor groups like Nvidia, Infineon and Intel, plus other component makers like Eaton, Denso and Aptiv, along with car manufacturers Ford Motor, BYD, Toyota, Maruti Suzuki, General Motors, Nissan and Kia
Man GLG Income – Darius McDermott, managing director of FundCalibre
Man GLG Income Acc Unit up 13.9% from 267.4p to 304.7p
Over to a mildly disgruntled Darius for the review: “My thesis for Man GLG Income was based around the vaccine bounce, reopening trade and Brexit resolution and that was very much what happened in the first half of the year.
“The fund was ahead of the FTSE All Share until June. Since then, things haven’t gone so well it has slightly disappointing relative returns over the whole year.
“Would I back it again this year? I wouldn’t back against it. It’s full of banks, miners, and oil – all cyclical trades and ones that should do well even if inflation remains high.”
Relegation battle
FTSE 100 – Neil Wilson, chief market analyst for Markets.com
UKX up 11.7% from 6,502 to 7,260.6
Our friendly but fiery Scotsman is not entirely satisfied with the performance of the Britain’s blue-chip benchmark.
“It’s done OK. I’d like to think it can make further gains into the year end but it’s been tough and some of the value is yet to be realised. Best to have some diversification to the US so maybe US small cap fund is a good bet in 2022,” he says, giving a hint to his upcoming tip for next year (watch this space…).
Polar Capital Holdings PLC – Peter Higgins, of the Twin Petes Investing podcast
AIM:POLR up 8.5% from 692p to 751p
After being in mid-table at the halfway stage, financial blogger Pete is a little frustrated about the performance of last year’s tip but not too downhearted as this is a solid performance, especially with 45p of dividends taken into account which takes up to 796p and gives a total return of 15%.
Better known as @Conkers3 to his many Twitter and ‘Twin Petes’ podcast followers, he points out the fund management company grew assets under management more £5bn, increasing its alternative investment and ESG credentials, while rewarding investors with a yield of 6.5% and capital gains over the year.
“The share price rise to a 52 week high £9.51 would have been happily taken by many – sadly over the past three months or so the POLR share price has rolled over. It was a reasonable total return.”
Admiral Group PLC – John Kingham, editor of the UK Value Investor blog
LSE:ADM up 5.9% from 2,923p to 3,095p
More painfully, John was third at the halfway stage and after eight months, Admiral shares were up 25% before a bad run followed.
Hopes earlier in the year were also excruciatingly dashed as the start price for Admiral’s shares was initially entered wrongly as 2,293p, when the correct price should have been 2,923p.
John is rightly unbowed, saying: "Admiral had a fantastic year, with good growth in customers and the dividend, but the share price fell significantly in the second-half, which only makes it a more attractive.”
** Initial prices were taken at the midday market close in London on 24 December 2020 and the close prices at the close on Thursday 16 December 2021.**