The markets have certainly had a good run......


I see that IG are now trading Ripple.

I don't like Ripples (too crumbly) so I have shorted.

I have asked them  to please also make markets in Twix and
Kit Kat where I would like to go long.

The markets have certainly had a good run and are due a bit of a correction. It looks unlikely there will be a major crash though who knows. The FTSE has given up some gains.

Anyhow I took out the FTSE short as signalled in my last update. Going very well so far and even better I now have stops at break even and some in profit. So with a bit of luck I can't lose now. It  could easily rebound which is where stops would bring be out at a profit of some kind. If it kept going down would gradually move those stops down to lock in more profit.

I still feel for now any buys have to look really good and have everything going for them and it they don't out they will get axed quicker than Cersei orders revenge on an enemy.

I'm also vaguely looking for shorts too, anything with a high debt or rating, these will get hit hard in any slowdown.

I bought some Future (LON:FUTR) though, hoping there is some future in it.

What's bizarre is I never realised I had them first of all.

I'd put in a direct market access order live at the then sell price at the last seminar but didn't check it had been filled as obviously was rather busy that day! I've also bought a few more as a normal order.

An interesting company, profits seem to be on the up, debt is lowish which is good considering they have spent a bit on acquisitions.

It didn't make much of a profit last time but forecast looks very good for this after
some acquistions.

If it makes forecasts, then the shares look good value. Doesn't look like any statement is due till April but would be interesting if the shares went up prior to that. It's quite volatile but would exit if it went down much to be on the safe side. Then I'd try again a bit lower should that happen.

I added some more Sopheon (LON:SOPH)

What more could you ask for than an amazingly bullish statement with all the buzz words I fall for.

It expects pre-tax profits to be "significantly ahead" of expectations and on top of that has more than doubled net cash.

Licence deals are  marching up and I liked that they actually gave out some figures in the statement unlike most companies who leave it so vague.

Shares are rising nicely at the moment and any move above 600 could see a more deserved 650p rating. The spread can get a little wide which is annoying but sometimes it closes up.

My gamble stock Ab Dynamics LON:ABDP fell quite a bit and stupidly I kept hold of it way too long exiting for a profit of £1370. And now I have bought back.

That profit should have been way more, at least a grand more.

However it has now come back further and now looks worth going in for again. So I bought back into ABDP this week. See comments on it in the archive for reasons.

I shorted (betting on the share price to go down) Pets at Home (LON:PETS).

Made a lot of money on this one when it was going up a while back. For now though it looks unconvincing, despite sales being up. Probably its best chance of improvement is via its
vets practices. The CEO left and the has sold a massive 12% of shares.

I'm aiming for around the low 160s as there is plenty of support for the shares around there. I suspect it wouldn't fall much below that and indeed I might be tempted to buy at that lower level and might switch to a long at that point. Debt continues to sit around the £150m level, quite high.

I've shorted Conviviality (LON:CVR) which I know is not very convivial of me.

On the face of it half year results look ok. What I don't like is the massive debt that is building up in the business.

And on top of that I would think a lot of its customers might well be struggling. If a few of them go under, it will affect things, and there could be some pressure on margins.

Given the valuation looks pretty full anyway with that debt, it now looks
overvalued. It came down a lot after the statement then rose a bit so looking for a push back to the 300p area.

I shorted Boo Hoo ( probably get some hate mail but good at pressing the delete button ) - I know many are in this. Had a discussion on this one at the seminar.

The rating just looks too high. It's been really well run. The site seems to have a lot of "one day sales" which miraculously get run again the day after with a countdown clock. That's a
worry. It relies on one or two brands. if the fickle youth market decides it is bored with the clothes here they could go elsewhere. And if there is any question mark at all the shares will slump.

Given there is an outside chance of a bid (Asos?) a short carries some risk which is partially
negated by a guaranteed stop.

I've been taking some more profits. Indeed been looking to cash in on some longer-term trades.

Morgan Sindall  has been a lovely longer-term winner but I'm out as the sector is out of favour and I have banked a profit of £1,460.

Same with Rnwh (LON:RNWH) where I have banked a long-term gain (over 4 years) of £19,570. Thanks,
loved you both!

Elsewhere las week's buy Abcam (LON:ABC) has flown higher and there seems little stopping it right now despite market falls. And some magnificent rises for K3C as it pushed on up through 200.

Nicely under the radar and has potential to head closer to the 300p level. Avon Rubber won another defence contract in the US.

The market liked Entertainment One's (LON:ETO)  buyout and the price is pushing up nicely. Surely a bid must come this year! Taptica (LON:TAP) holds at a higher price. T Clarke put out a decent statement, looks like it's well run and it hasn't really been affected by Carillion

Overall then I continue to be cautious and I don't want to give up some marvellous recent gains. So for now, more of a seller than a buyer!

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