Wednesday: Brexit and TUI Group
Britain will formally apply to exit the European Union today.
PM Theresa May will write to European Council President Donald Tusk to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
Tusk will then send draft negotiating guidelines to the 27 other member states within 48 hours.
Some of the chief protagonists got their retaliation in early ahead of the historic day.
Brexit is “a failure and a tragedy”, said Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, adding the negotiations would be “friendly” and fair.
TUI Group
Times are tough in the European travel industry and both TUI and Thomas Cook investors will be keeping their eyes peeled this week…
Thomson Holidays owner TUI Group PLC (LON:TUI) will give a trading statement on Wednesday (29 March) ahead of reporting its interims in May.
All eyes will be on how its summer sales are coming along. At the last update in February, TUI said 35% of the summer programme had been sold, and by the end of March in both 2015 and 2016 that figure was closer to 50%, so that’s the benchmark.
There were also the recent reports that TUI received a warning from EU officials earlier last week that it – along with other UK-based airlines – will have to relocate its headquarters to the EU after Brexit if it wants to keep its major routes.
A comment on these kind of matters in a trading update is unlikely, but it’s worth bearing in mind just in case.
It will be interesting to see if the recent terror attack in London has had a knock-on effect on holidaymakers’ sentiment, although it might still be too soon to tell.
Tunisia and Turkey were a drag on TUI last year as tourists avoided the normally popular holiday destinations because of security fears.
There was also the announcement last month that TUI had agreed to sell off its Travelopia business for an enterprise value of £325mln to private equity group KKR.
The company vaguely said the proceeds would be reinvested as it becomes more “focused on own hotel and cruise brands”, so a bit more detail on how it plans to spend this cash wouldn’t go amiss.
TUI repeated to investors in last month’s update that it was targeting underlying earnings growth of “at least 10%” in the current year, guidance that investors will be hoping is repeated (maybe even bettered) this time around.
Tuesday.. Thomas Cook, Ebiquity, Panmure
Another travel and tourism group issuing a pre-close trading update is Thomas Cook Group (LON:TCG), which reports to the market on Tuesday.
Similar to TUI, summer 2017 was 31% sold at the end of its first quarter in December, although by the end of March last year it had only sold 40% of its summer holidays.
Taking 40% as the benchmark, that seems more than achievable. But given the cautious outlook in February’s update when the company bemoaned a “backdrop of continued uncertainty”, it might not be such an easy target.
All operators have been struggling with selling holidays in Turkey but Thomas Cook said holidaymakers were opting to visit other countries such as Greece or Cyprus instead rather than cancel their breaks altogether.
Investors will be hoping that theme has continued into the second quarter which will ease the burden caused by Turkey’s downturn in popularity.
The recent update showed like-for-like revenues and losses in the first quarter were broadly flat on last year’s numbers which analysts said was a “small victory” in such a competitive sector.
A similar ‘stopping the rot’ update would likely go down well among an investor base which has seen the share price drop more than 40% over the past three years.
Ebiquity
Marketing analytics group Ebiquity plc (LON:ECQ) is set to report a 9% increase in full year revenue thanks to a robust performance in 2016 and a boost from a weaker pound.
In a January trading update the company said two-thirds of its revenues are denominated in non-sterling currency and foreign exchange gains amounted to £4.5mln in 2016.
Following the upbeat statement, Numis said it expects pre-tax profit of £11.9mln, compared to £11.2mln the previous year, and earnings per share of 11.2p, compared to 10.8p in 2015.
The broker estimates the dividend per share will rise to 0.5p from 0.4p.
Ebiquity has said already it expects another increase in 2017 after a brisk start to the year’s trading.
“2017 has seen a noticeable pick up in new business activity and consequently the company has better revenue visibility as compared with the prior year”.
Panmure Gordon
Panmure Gordon & Co. Plc (LON:PMR), which has agreed a takeover by former Barclays plc (LON:BARC) chief executive Bob Diamond and a Qatari investment bank, reports its full year results on Tuesday.
The company in January said it expects to return to full year profit and positive operational cash flow along with an increase in revenue to about £27mln from £23mln the prior year.
It said trading for the year to 31 December 2016 has been in line with its expectations, with revenue weighted towards the second half, despite an “unpredictable political and macro-economic environment”.
The market will be looking out for further remarks on Panmure’s deal with Diamond. Diamond’s New York-based private equity firm, Atlas Merchant Capital, has joined forces with QInvest, the Qatari investment bank, which already owns a 43% stake in Panmure, to buy the company.
Thursday...Booker
Booker Group plc (LON:BOK) posts a trading update on Thursday with a key focus on Tesco’s £3.7bn takeover of the food wholesale operator.
Tesco announced in January it had agreed to buy Booker - which owns the Budgens, Premier and Londis convenience-store brands - as the supermarket expands beyond its traditional retail business amid fierce competition from smaller rivals, including Aldi and Lidl.
Booker, the largest cash and carrier operator in the UK, in January said it remains on course to meet full year expectations as it reported a 3.2% increase in like-for-like sales in the third quarter, citing growth in catering and retail.
Monday 27
Interims:YouGov PLC (LON:YOU)
Finals: X5 Retail Group N.v (LON:89VS);Bank Of Cyprus Holdings (LON:BOCH);
SpaceandPeople Plc (LON:SAL); Inspired Energy plc (LON:INSE); Eleco PLC(LON:ELCO)
Tuesday 28
Interims
Wolseley PLC (LON:WOS); Moss Bros Group plc (LON:MOSB); Inland Homes PLC (LON:INL); Artilium PLC (LON:ARTA)
Finals
Personal Group Holdings plc (LON:PGH), Ergomed Plc (LON:ERGO);Gulf Marine Services PLC (LON:GMS); LiDCO Group plc (LON:LID);Ladbrokes Coral Group Plc (LON:LCL); Premier Technical Services Group Plc (LON:PTSG); Instem Plc (LON:INS); Ebiquity plc (LON:EBQ); Barr (A G) PLC (LON:BAG)
Silence Therapeutics PLC (LON:SLN), Yu Group Plc (LON:YU.); Cloudcall Group Plc (LON:CALL); Card Factory Plc (LON:CARD); AA plc (LON:AA.)
Trading statement
United Utilities Group PLC (LON:UU.); Thomas Cook Group PLC (LON:TCG)
AGM / EGM
Chenavari Capital Solutions (LON:CCSL)
Wednesday 29
Interim
Transense Technologies PLC (LON:TRT); James Halstead PLC (LON:JHD); Allergy Therapeutics plc (LON:AGY)
Finals
Alliance Pharma (LON:APHA); Johnston Press plc (LON:JPR); Jackpotjoy PLC (LON:JPJ); Faron Pharmaceuticals (LON:FARN); Centaur Media PLC (LON:CAU); Gresham House plc (LON:GHE); Saga (LON:SAGA); Cambridge Cognition Holdings (LON:COG)
AGM/EGMS
Angus Energy Plc (LON:ANGS); Atlas Mara Co-invest Ltd (LON:ATMA); Adept4 Plc (LON:AD4)
Trading Statement
Stagecoach Group PLC (LON:SGC)
Thursday 30 March
Finals
SciSys PLC (LON:SSY); Genel Energy PLC (LON:GENL); International Public Partnership Ltd (LON:INPP); Booker Group PLC (LON:BOK); Amryt Pharma (LON:AMYT); Anglo Pacific Group PLC (LON:APF); Starcom Plc (LON:STAR); Chesnara Plc (LON:CSN); Management Resource Solutions Plc (LON:MRS)
IPSA Group PLC (LON:IPSA); Arria NLG PLC (LON:NLG)
Trading Statement
RPC Group PLC (LON:RPC); Booker Group PLC (LON:BOK)
AGMs
Intelligent Energy Holdings Plc (LON:IEH); Milestone Group PLC (LON:MSG); Aberdeen Diversified Income And Growth Trust Plc (LON:ADIG); Cathay International Holdings Ltd (LON:CTI); Finansbank (LON:01LS)
Ex-Dividend
PPHE Hotel Group; Old Mutual Group; Origin Enterprises;
Maven Income & Growth VCT 5; Schroders PLC; Schroders; Wynnstay Group, Value And Income Trust (VIN), Synectics Plc ,Smith & Nephew, Maven Income and Growth VCT 3 PLC, LSL Property Services PLC ,Devro, Diverse Income Trust PLC(The),Craneware, British Land, Foreign & Colonial Investment Trust Plc, Go-Ahead Group, Kingspan Group, Jardine Lloyd Thompson, Idox, Headlam, Abbey
Friday 31 March
Interim
Touchstone Innovations Plc (LON:IVO); Pantheon Resources Plc (LON:PANR)
AGM
Santander UK Plc (LON:SAN); IRF European Finance Investments Ltd (LON:IRF)