Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (LSE:BKG), the FTSE 100 housebuilder focused on London and the South East, has warned that some buyers may defer purchases until after October's Budget.
In a trading update released at its annual general meeting on Thursday, the company said sentiment and core economic indicators have deteriorated further since the start of its financial year in May.
It blamed the Middle East conflict continuing for longer than initially anticipated, alongside ongoing political change and uncertainty in the UK.
Enquiry levels remain good and stable, but customers without an immediate need to move and readily available cash remain cautious to commit, a picture unchanged from June's full year results.
Berkeley said it continues to operate within the four-year £1.4 billion pre-tax profit plan announced in April, when it cut planned production by around 25% in response to the worsening economic outlook.
Profits will be broadly even across the period, though the company expects earnings to be slightly weighted towards the first half of the current year, subject to the timing of completions.
The group returned £60 million to shareholders in the first four months of the year, buying 1.7 million shares at an average price of £34.18.
That takes total buybacks to £171 million against a £640 million target running to September 2030, ahead of the required run rate.
Net cash is expected to be around £250 million at the half-year.
Berkeley used the update to press the Government for urgent reform of stamp duty, arguing a regime designed when interest rates were 0.25% has become a binding constraint on transactions.
It wants stamp duty capped at 1% for first-time buyers and downsizers, and the 5% investor surcharge scrapped.
The company cited Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that every 1% cut in stamp duty may lift transactions by up to 6%.
Berkeley backed the Government's planning reforms in London, including the Homes for London package, but said the pro-development stance in policymaking must now be matched in decision-making.
The company said its brownfield regeneration model can be a major catalyst for growth.
