Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL, XETRA:ORC) reports fiscal first-quarter 2027 results Thursday afternoon, with Wall Street split between concerns over ballooning capital expenditures and optimism that data center capacity additions could reaccelerate revenue growth.
Bank of America is modeling infrastructure-as-a-service growth of 116% year-over-year and total revenue growth of 28%, up from 21% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.
The bank said it is focused on three areas heading into the report: the pace of data center capacity deployment and remaining performance obligation conversion to revenue, capital expenditures and funding requirements, and trends in the core software business.
BofA expects roughly 1GW of new data center capacity to come online during the quarter. It projects gross margin will decline to 63.8% from 68.7% a year earlier, and operating margin to fall to 40% from 41.8%, as the infrastructure mix continues to weigh on profitability.
Jefferies flagged several overhangs on the stock, including financing risk as capex ramps against negative free cash flow and pressured credit ratings; execution risk tied to reported delays at some AI data center sites due to labor, permitting and power availability; and customer concentration, with about 47% of Oracle's backlog tied to a single AI lab.
Despite those concerns, Jefferies said it believes Oracle is near peak negative sentiment, with shares down about 41% from their level before the company's flagship AI contract was announced in September 2025, even as remaining performance obligations grew by $183 billion since then.
Both firms pointed to Oracle's cloud infrastructure segment as the key metric to watch. Jefferies expects OCI growth to inflect to 115% year-over-year, a 22-point sequential acceleration, while SaaS growth remains more modest at 11%. The Street's operating margin estimate of 40.9% would mark Oracle's lowest in 12 quarters.
Oracle shares have fallen 25% since the fourth-quarter report, largely on investor concern about data center profitability as component costs rise and credit spreads widen.
Shares were down around 2% on Thursday morning ahead of the report.
