European airlines are still cutting capacity to and from the Middle East, and the reductions are deepening rather than easing, according to the latest UBS tracking of airline schedules.
The bank monitors seat capacity weekly using Cirium data, and the numbers moved the wrong way again over the past seven days.
July schedules from the Middle East to Europe showed a 6.9% decline year on year.
August capacity is now down 5.5%, against 4.9% a week earlier, while September has slipped to a 2.7% decline from 1.7%.
Those are sequential deteriorations in forward schedules, meaning airlines are still trimming flights they had planned to operate.
The scale of the disruption since the conflict began is easier to see over the full year.
Europe to Middle East capacity is now expected to fall 11% across 2026, a downgrade of 18.1 percentage points against schedules filed on 3 March.
The trough came in April, when capacity on the route ran 54.5% below the prior year.
Asian carriers have pulled back too, with Asia to Middle East capacity down 5.7% for the year.
Fourth quarter indications point to broadly flat Middle East capacity, though December is softening again.
The cost side offers no relief.
Jet kerosene prices are up around 96% so far this year, having peaked at more than 160% higher during the worst of the crisis.
Elsewhere, European capacity growth is moderating but still positive.
Third quarter long-haul capacity growth is running at 2.7%, down from 2.8% a week ago, with short-haul at 4.2% from 4.4%.
Fourth quarter forecasts have come down more sharply, to 4.8% growth for long-haul from 5.4% and 3.4% for short-haul from 3.9%.
Air France-KLM (OTC:AFLYY) is the largest long-haul capacity provider in the first nine months, at 11.4% of the total, ahead of IAG on 9.9%.
Emirates and Qatar Airways, the two Gulf carriers in the top 10, are cutting hardest, with capacity down 12.5% and 19.9% respectively.
On short-haul, Ryanair leads with 18.8% of capacity and growth of 4.3%, followed by Lufthansa Group and easyJet.
Middle East exposure among the European carriers is modest, at 1% to 2% of capacity for International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LSE:IAG), Lufthansa and Air France-KLM.
