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The Markets
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Proactive UK has moved.
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Growth stocks coverage continues on .com
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Growth stocks coverage continues on .com
Go to Proactive UK

Tech

Pinterest Inc PINS View profile

Pinterest is winning the argument on AI costs and losing the one on growth

Pinterest Inc (NYSE:PINS) beat on revenue, beat on earnings, beat on users, raised its margin target for the year and then watched its shares fall more than 8% in extended trading.

Revenue of $1.18 billion was up 18% year on year against expectations of $1.15 billion.

Adjusted earnings of 43 cents a share came in well ahead of the 36 cents forecast, while adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $311 million beat a $270 million consensus.

Monthly active users hit a record 640 million, up 11%, with Gen Z now accounting for more than half the base.

The stock had climbed almost 6% during the session to $25.58 before sliding to around $23.45 after hours.

Guidance problem

The damage was done by the third-quarter outlook. Guidance of $1.19 billion to $1.21 billion implies growth of 13% to 15%, down from 18%, and lands almost exactly on consensus.

Management pointed to identifiable one-offs, since World Cup spending added nearly a percentage point in the second quarter and will not repeat, Amazon's Prime Day shifted out of the third quarter into the second, worth roughly half a point in each direction, and currency is a modest drag.

The explanation is credible, but it does not alter what the number says, which is that growth slows from here.

That matters more for Pinterest than for most, because the shares are down 17% over the past year and the average analyst price target has been cut from about $35 to below $24. Meeting expectations is no rescue when the story needed an inflexion.

Cheap AI bet

The more interesting disclosure was how Pinterest runs artificial intelligence. Rather than paying for access to the largest proprietary systems, it builds small task-specific models and post-trains open-weight models, which are freely downloadable, inside its own cloud environment.

Bill Ready, chief executive, said the cost per transaction is under 8% of comparable closed models, and went as far as arguing that any chief executive ignoring open models is wasting shareholders' money.

Julia Donnelly, finance chief, described routing infrastructure that sends complex work to expensive models and routine tasks to cheap ones.

The pay-off shows up in the full-year adjusted EBITDA margin target, lifted to roughly 30%.

That is the mirror image of the trade being struck across the rest of the sector, where companies are spending tens of billions on compute and asking investors for patience.

Why it does not rescue the stock

Cost discipline is simply not what the market is paying for at the moment. Pinterest generated $270 million of free cash flow in the quarter and has repurchased more than $2 billion of stock this year at an average price of $18, cutting net dilution by 12%.

It still reported a statutory loss of $47 million, against a $38.8 million profit a year earlier, largely on an inflated share-based compensation charge as the annual grant cycle was struck at a depressed share price.

There is an uncomfortable loop in that, because a weak stock makes the grants more dilutive, which makes the accounting look worse.

The strategic question is also unresolved, since more than 96% of Pinterest's text searches are unbranded, meaning its value rests on people browsing before they know what they want.

That is precisely the job general-purpose AI assistants are being built to do.

Open models keep the margins intact, but they do not settle who owns the search.

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