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The Markets
by Proactive
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FTSE & SMALL CAP MARKET REPORT

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FTSE 100 Live: Tepid end to month after hitting record highs, as Budget date set

  • FTSE 100 falls 29 points to 10,868
  • South Korea leads Asian market rally
  • Sainsbury jumps on Argos disposal
  • Melrose declines on Garden Grove hit

5.02pm: Stocks slump

The FTSE 100 finished the day down 29 points at 10,868, down from record highs as oil prices rose. Across the Atlantic, the Dow Jones was up 0.4%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.3%.

4.11pm: A little profit-taking something for the weekend

After hitting a record high earlier, London's blue-chip index looks to have been hit by a bit of profit taking.

So reckons Chris Beauchamp at IG: "End of month profit taking might be a bit of a cliché, but with a weekend of potential strikes on Iran and the last day of July trading upon us investors have looked to book in some gains."

The FTSE 100 has been the flavour of the fortnight as AI as chip stocks have suffered.

"While a close above 11,000 eludes the index at present, it still seems a matter of when, not if," Beauchamp says.

He portrays pre-weekend caution for the soft start in New York, but says dip buyers may be "looking to hold the line for today and then resume the buying on Monday".

"Assuming, that is, that the US doesn’t go in heavy on Iran in a fresh bid to secure negotiations.

"Reports point towards growing exasperation in the White House over the lack of progress towards a deal, which raises the likelihood of a significant strike in order to secure concessions."

The rise in oil prices today "suggests there has been some opportunistic buying in case action does take place".

3.52pm: FTSE's mini drama

The FTSE was humming along fairly blithely, up around 50 points, until US markets opened and sent it into the red.

After dropping 63 or so points south, it has started to move up again, cutting the loss below 20 points.

Heavyweights such as Unilever, RELX, Compass, HSBC and AstraZeneca fell, outweighing gains for oil and mining stocks.

IG Group is still the biggest faller, plunging 13.1% after last night's Underdog deal, while Melrose is next after its update earlier; JD Sports and Experian are also among the sharpest fallers.

NatWest's 3.7% results-led gain and rises for Shell, BP, BAE Systems and Glencore are limiting the decline.

3.15pm: UK Budget date confirmed

The government has announced that the first Budget under new PM Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey will be on 28 October.

HM Treasury said: "The government has said it will stick to its fiscal rules to support economic stability and provide certainty, while using the Budget to drive growth in every postcode and ease cost-of-living pressures."

Healey has commissioned the OBR to prepare an economic and fiscal forecast to be presented alongside the Budget.

3.09pm: Apple hit

Wall Street opened higher, but has slipped into the red, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 falling almost 0.4% now, and the Nasdaq shedding 0.3%.

Apple is providing the biggest drag, tumbling 8.6%, while Coinbase has slumped 12.1% and GoDaddy is down 23.8%.

Strategy, Linde, AppLovin and SanDisk are also among other fallers.

Bonds are putting pressure on the market, with the yield on the US 10-year note surging to its highest level since the start of last year, at 4.73%.

UK gilts are also climbing, with the 10yr moving above 5.05%.

2.05pm: Morrisons losses grow

Morrisons said it demonstrated "resilience" in the past year, though annual pre-tax losses widened to £926 million from £612 million and almost 5,000 jobs were axed.

Doesn't sound very resilient for the business owned by US private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, which took the supermarket private following its £7 billion takeover in 2021

Sales rose 3.2% to £15.8 billion in the year to October 2025, though grocery inflation did some of the lifting.

The supermarket blamed a cyberattack on an IT supplier, rising costs and a writedown on the value of its McColl's convenience stores.

Look beneath the loss, however, and Morrisons assures us that "the underlying performance of the business was robust".

There is at least some evidence for the defence. Net debt has fallen 46% to £3.2 billion since CD&R bought the grocer, helping annual interest costs drop 29% to a still fairly chunky £281 million.

The human cost of that deleveraging included 4,912 jobs, with cuts following the closure of its newspaper delivery service and reductions at head office and the Rathbones bakery business.

1.32pm: The big stories for US markets

"What a difference a day makes," croons market analyst Kenny Polcari at Slatestone, "24 little hours…. Stocks exploded higher yesterday—and if you listened to the media, you’d think investors suddenly decided AI was alive again.

"That’s not what happened."

He points out that semiconductor stocks, which had been crushed nearly 30% from their highs, "simply became too cheap to ignore and buyers stepped in and took that sector up 8.5%."

And Microsoft, which had been "tossed out the window", by the end of the day had surged by 15.5%, adding $450 billion in market value in one day, the largest one-day surge in any stock capitalisation in history.

This helped the Mag 7 to 2%, while the Dow Transports and the Equal Weight S&P lost ground. Other sectors that fell included utilities, consumer staples, communications, healthcare, basic materials and real estate.

"Let’s be clear about what happened – no matter how the media framed it. Demand for AI didn’t disappear. The AI story hasn’t’ been falling apart... Expectations got way ahead of reality, valuations became stretched, and investors demanded a reset. In the end - it was a recognition that the selling had simply gone too far – creating opportunities everywhere you looked."

Polcari says the 30% correction in a sector that was up nearly 100% in the year "is not the end of the story", but "the price of admission for the next leg higher".

Then after the bell Apple and Amazon reported and sent "two very different messages", he says,

Apple's quarter was "fine" on the surface, but Tim Cook's warning that supply constraints, particularly advanced chips and memory needed for AI-enabled devices, could limit growth in the coming quarter.

"That’s not a demand problem. That’s a supply problem. But Wall Street doesn’t like uncertainty," says Polcari, so the shares are down 7.8% in premarket trading.

Amazon, up 12%, was a completely different story, with AWS revenue surging 37% and management raised capital spending plans, "perhaps most importantly", says Polcari.

"If this had happened six months ago, investors might have panicked over another massive increase in spending. Not anymore. Why? Because just like MSFT - AMZN showed the money is already generating results. AWS is accelerating, not slowing. Demand for AI infrastructure continues to exceed available capacity. Businesses aren’t pulling back—they’re asking for more."

12.26pm: Crude up, petrol prices at highest this year

Crude oil prices have spiked again, probably reflecting more fighting in the Gulf.

In the past hour, the Kuwaiti army said Iranian drones penetrated the country's airspace since early morning and were intercepted and destroyed.

Brent crude has climbed back above $90 a barrel, having dropped to below $87 earlier.

Meanwhile, the RAC has flagged that UK petrol prices have risen to their highest level so far this year to an average of 160p a litre at the pump.

This is "very unwelcome news for drivers", says RAC head of policy Simon Williams, with the average price of petrol up 9.38p from the levels in early July.

"Diesel has now shot up 14.5p since its low point on 9 July to 179p, but fortunately is still 12.5p below its conflict high of 191.54p on 15 April."

To fill a family-size car with unleaded petrol now costs £88.

"The wholesale price of petrol eased very slightly this week but it is not enough to make a difference at the pumps," Williams said.

"Diesel looks set to keep on rising and is likely to reach 185p a litre in the next few weeks, barring any major oil price reduction."

11.56am: IG deal analysed

IG Group shares tumbled almost 11% now as investors reacted to the proposed acquisition of US sports-betting business Underdog for up to $1.3 billion, which will require a share issue and the pausing of its share buyback.

The deal was announced yesterday evening, just after markets closed.

Analyst David McCann at Deutsche Bank says Underdog is "increasingly" a prediction-markets business that remains firmly focused on sports.

He notes that Underdog generated annualized revenue of $0.5 billion and EBITDA of $0.12 billion in the first half of 2026, implying multiples of up to 2.6x revenue / 10.8x EBITDA based on the up front plus maximum earn out ($1.3 billion).

Julian Roberts at Jefferies says: "The results are in line and probably will not provoke much excitement, but the acquisition is interesting, and we suspect it will play well with investors."

11.33am: FCA targets 'consolidated tape' within 18 months

The Financial Conduct Authority has set out plans to launch a consolidated record of trading across UK equity markets within 18 months, as the City watchdog seeks to make share-market activity easier and cheaper to track.

Data from before and after trades take place will be provided, giving investors a broader view of prices, liquidity and market activity.

UK investors currently have access to a wide range of trading venues, which the FCA said had encouraged competition and innovation.

"However, greater choice has also increased fragmentation," it added. "Obtaining a complete picture of trading activity can be complicated and expensive, meaning market-wide data is often under-used. It also means the depth and liquidity of UK equity markets is often under-appreciated."

A proposed "consolidated tape" will combine trading information from different exchanges and venues into a single source.

10.45am: Microsoft works its magic

Mid-morning, the FTSE 100 is off its highs but still looks set to end the week on the front foot, with US markets also poised to end on a high.

London's blue-chip index is currently up 55 points at 10,952.25, a gain of 0.5%.

US futures are pointing to a positive open, with the Nasdaq expected to open 1.2% higher, while Dow Jones futures are up 0.6% and those for the S&P 500 are 0.5% firmer.

“The FTSE 100 tested new record highs on Friday morning as investors continue to climb the wall of worry and sentiment improves,” commented AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“The rebound in tech powered by Microsoft’s extremely well-received numbers has helped lift the broader market mood, helping investors to put concerns about the Iran conflict and its continuing impact on ice for now."

Mould noted that miners are helping to support the London market, along with some positive corporate updates.

“Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey slumped as the company downgraded construction guidance, reported a hit to margins and slashed capital returns to shareholders, offering the latest reminder that this sector is on shaky foundations,” he added.

10.30am: Small caps in the news

Ariana Resources PLC (AIM:AAU, ASX:AA2, FRA:4A6) has raised US$3.7 million from selling its remaining Kiziltepe interest in Türkiye, strengthening funds for its Dokwe Gold Project in Zimbabwe. The proceeds lift its pro forma cash balance to £20.68 million, helping finance the project’s definitive feasibility study without shareholder dilution. Read more

Zanaga Iron Ore Co Ltd (AIM:ZIOC, FRA:6ZA) said discussions with Red Arc Minerals are continuing, with progress made towards securing up to US$500 million in strategic funding. The potential backing comes from a government-supported development finance institution, which has issued a letter of intent for the company’s flagship iron ore project in the Republic of Congo. Read more

Futura Medical PLC (AIM:FUM, OTC:FAMDF, FRA:GYX) has cleared the way for its stronger Eroxon Intense erectile dysfunction gel to launch across the UK and Europe. The upgraded formulation showed positive results in a home-user study, and partner Cooper Consumer Health can now roll it out. Futura is also targeting US approval later this year. Read more

Quadrise PLC (AIM:QED) has given its Moroccan representative until the end of 2026 to help secure a commercial MSAR fuel supply agreement. A successful deal would unlock 12 million warrants for Younes Maamar, who is supporting the company’s local opportunities. The warrants will only vest after a publicly announced agreement tied to an active project. Read more

9.45am: Footsie remains buoyant

The FTSE 100 has held onto most of the morning's gains, though is now slightly below its new intraday high, with a gain of 73 points to 10,969.86.

"The FTSE 100 has been waiting patiently since late February to recapture its previous record highs, and the catalyst seems finally to have arrived," commented Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor.

"The primary index has reemerged as a haven destination as investors have increasingly sought options away from the beleaguered AI trade."

Given that the index is widely seen as a stable, defensive and undervalued investment destination, Hunter noted that its selection of strong and developed companies is attracting global inflows, with additional boosts coming from its exposure to oil and mining stocks as well as a revitalised banking sector.

"The average dividend yield across the index of 3% is another attraction and adds to the total returns on offer to investors," Hunter added.

9am: New high for FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 has shot past yesterday's intraday high in early trading, gaining 85 points to 10,981.71.

The overnight tech rally, which continued through to Asian markets this morning, has pushed Polar Capital Technology Trust PLC (LSE:PCT) 4.3% higher, while Natwest is also doing some of the heavy lifting. Its shares are up 3.8%.

After toppling 9% in early trades, Melrose Industries has recovered somewhat and is now down 3.1%.

The aerospace and defence company delivered a solid first half, with revenue up 10% and adjusted operating profit rising 16%, driven by strong demand across its aerospace business. The group also boosted its interim dividend by 13% and reaffirmed its full-year guidance, excluding disruption from the Garden Grove facility in the US.

However, a chemical tank incident at the end of May at its GKN Aerospace Garden Grove facility in the US dented profits and has prompted a pause to its share buyback programme while it assesses the financial impact. Even so, chief executive Peter Dilnot said momentum remains strong, supported by operational improvements and continued growth in both civil aerospace and defence.

8.15am: Footsie eyes new high

After a tentative start, the FTSE 100 has found its feet and looks set to test yesterday's intraday record high of 10,979.60. About 15 minutes into the session, London's blue-chip index is up 64 points at 10,961.09.

Sainsbury is leading the charge this morning, up 6.2% following news of the Argos disposal to Swift Partners.

Polar Capital Technology Trust PLC (LSE:PCT) has jumped 3.8%, benefitting from the overnight rebound in tech stocks, and Rentokil Initial PLC (LSE:RTO) has gained 2.6%, recovering some of yesterday's steep losses after it released half-year results. Natwest has gained 2.7% on the back of its interim results.

Miners are also doing well this morning, with Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL)Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO)Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) and Endeavour Mining PLC (LSE:EDV, TSX:EDV, OTCQX:EDVMF, FRA:6E2) all gaining between 1.5% and 2.5%.

On the loser board, Melrose Industries PLC (LSE:MRO, OTC:MLSPF) has sunk 9% after releasing half-year results. More on them shortly. IG Group Holdings Plc (LSE:IGG) is down 4.6% and Pearson PLC (LSE:PSON) has shed 4% after it released interim results.

7.55am: Blue chips to watch

Ahead of the market open, here are a few blue-chips out with news this morning.

NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG) lifted its full-year guidance after first-half profit jumped on higher income and tighter cost control. The lender also brought forward plans for another share buyback, alongside a 12p interim dividend, as earnings and returns improved. Chief executive Paul Thwaite said the bank's strategy continues to deliver, while the recently completed Evelyn Partners acquisition helped drive further growth in customer assets. Read more

ITV PLC (LSE:ITV) said it remains on track to meet full-year guidance after delivering a solid first half, with growth in ITV Studios and strong digital advertising helping offset a softer production mix. ITVX viewing jumped 27%, while digital ad revenue climbed 13%. The broadcaster also maintained its interim dividend, announced a £100 million share buyback and said its proposed sale of Media & Entertainment to Sky is progressing through regulatory review. Read more

Taylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:TW.) cut its shareholder payout policy after first-half profit fell nearly 20%, with softer housing demand and rising build costs continuing to weigh on performance. The housebuilder also trimmed its full-year completions outlook, saying buyers remain price conscious and sales are taking longer to complete. Despite the tougher market, Taylor Wimpey expects cash generation to improve in the second half as it keeps a tight grip on costs. Read more

J Sainsbury PLC (LSE:SBRY) is selling Argos to Swift Partners for at least £120 million as it sharpens its focus on its core grocery business. The deal is expected to cut debt, improve cash flow and provide a small boost to earnings, while long-term commercial agreements will keep Argos stores, Habitat and Nectar partnerships in place. Sainsbury's also reaffirmed its full-year guidance, with completion expected in early 2027. Read more

7.45am: Asian markets rally

Asian markets staged a dramatic rebound overnight, led by South Korea's Kospi, which surged more than 16%, while Japan's Nikkei climbed over 4%. Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid called it a packed morning, joking, "it's hard to know where to start" between the Kospi move, the yen's swings and the Bank of Japan's decision.

The BoJ held interest rates steady while raising its economic growth outlook, signalling confidence that policy normalisation remains on track following last month's hike to the highest level since 1995. Board member Hajime Takata dissented in favour of a further increase, though Reid noted the bank had expected two dissenters, calling the outcome "a touch dovish." The BoJ also trimmed its core inflation forecast to 2.5%, citing government subsidies and falling energy prices.

The yen remains volatile after suspected FX intervention sent it surging more than 2% in just half an hour on Thursday, before easing back to around 160.77 this morning.

The rally in Asian equities follows a blistering session on Wall Street, where Microsoft's results triggered its best day since 2008 and the largest single-day market-cap gain for any company ever, at $450 billion, fuelling a broader tech-led rebound.

FTSE 100 Live: Stocks look set to test new high

The FTSE 100 is expected to open higher this morning, building on Thursday's fresh intraday high, as a powerful Wall Street rebound and a broad Asian rally provide a strong tailwind heading into Friday's session.

Futures point to the blue-chip index opening around 50 points up, after retreating from record levels to close 11 points down at 10,897 on Thursday.

Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly described the mood in Asia as "a spectacular relief rally," though he cautioned that it looks more like a repair than a reset. Battered chipmakers were aggressively bought back after Wall Street's tech recovery and strong Amazon earnings revived confidence in AI-linked demand, he said, even as the month's damage remains severe, particularly in Korea, where the KOSPI is still on course for its worst monthly decline since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

In the US, the Nasdaq surged 2.8% as tech stocks powered a comeback, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.7% and the Dow added 1.2%. Munnelly pointed to Amazon as "the cleanest positive signal" of the session, with shares jumping more than 9% after-hours on strong cloud growth, while Apple fell over 6% after disappointing services revenue and guidance.

Microsoft also helped drive the rebound, posting the largest single-day increase in market value ever and lifting broader sentiment, a day after stocks had tumbled on the Fed's hawkish tone.

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