Cavendish has reiterated its 'buy' rating on Poolbeg Pharma PLC (AIM:POLB), arguing that the drug developer's first patient dosing marks the start of a value-creating period for the shares.
The broker set a target price of 19p, implying upside of about 170% from the current 7.4p (up 5% on the day).
That gap captures the central tension in the investment case: a company with no revenue and a widening cash burn, set against what Cavendish believes is a drug with multi-billion-dollar peak sales potential.
Why Cavendish is positive
Cavendish frames POLB 001 as directly lined up with a growing clinical need rather than a speculative bet.
Its argument rests on the expansion of bispecific antibodies and CAR-T cancer therapies, treatments that frequently trigger cytokine release syndrome.
As their use rises, so does the burden of the syndrome, which Cavendish says supports a substantial market for a preventative therapy.
The broker points to increasing recognition from payers and clinicians of the value in reducing these complications.
The near-term catalysts
Cavendish identifies two events as the key value drivers over the coming months.
The first is interim data from the TOPICAL trial, which the broker expects later this summer and describes as a potentially significant moment for the shares.
The single-arm study is testing POLB 001 in around 30 relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma patients receiving teclistamab, the Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) bispecific antibody.
Cavendish notes that the acute nature of the syndrome allows for a rapid interim readout, a point that underpins the summer timeline.
The second driver is partnering, with the broker saying discussions are progressing with engagement from multiple third parties.
The commercial backdrop
Cavendish highlights a recent successful pre-investigational new drug meeting with the US Food and Drug Administration as clarifying the American regulatory path.
It adds that independent payer and market research has pointed to multi-billion-dollar peak sales potential in the United States.
The broker also flags strong unsolicited interest from the haematology community, with investigators approaching the company about taking part.
