Traders on Polymarket are betting heavily that OpenAI will release its GPT-5.6 model within days, after the US Department of Commerce approved a broad launch of the system.
The prediction market, where users bet on the outcome of real-world events, puts the probability of a release on 9 July at 98%.
The market has traded around $867,000 in volume and will resolve on 31 July.
The sharp move followed a report by Axios on Tuesday that the Commerce Department had cleared a wide release of the advanced model, citing a person familiar with the matter.
OpenAI expects to complete the rollout this week after further testing and meetings between the company and government officials, according to the report.
Reuters said it could not immediately verify the account.
OpenAI, the White House and the Commerce Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The approval marks a shift after an unusual delay to the launch.
Last month, OpenAI said it was holding back a full public release of GPT-5.6 at the request of the US government.
Access was initially limited to a small group of vetted partners whose details were shared with the authorities.
The episode underlines the growing role of government oversight in the release of frontier AI models.
A separate Polymarket contract on whether GPT-5.6 would launch by 24 July now trades at 100%.
Other related markets show traders pricing a 99% chance that OpenAI releases a new frontier model on or before September.
A contract on whether GPT-6 arrives by the end of 2026 sits at 73%.
