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Capita PLC CPI View profile

Capita sell-off looks outsized against a contract that barely moves the dial

Shares in Capita PLC (LSE:CPI) fell 9% to 294.5p on Tuesday, extending losses after the outsourcing group updated on its troubled Civil Service Pension Scheme contract.

Yet the scale of the reaction sits oddly with the contract's modest financial weight.

The pension scheme deal generates annual revenues of around £20 million to £25 million, a sliver of Capita's roughly £2 billion turnover.

Even a complete loss of the contract would leave little dent in group earnings.

The real damage is reputational.

The update followed comments in Parliament on Monday night, when the Cabinet minister responsible criticised performance and identified the core problem as non-delivery of technology.

Milestones set for April and June were both missed.

Some 6,700 quotations for past retirement dates remain outstanding, alongside more than 4,100 bereavement cases.

The government has withheld around £9.9 million of payments, sent in a recovery taskforce of more than 140 people, dispatched auditors and appointed a remedial adviser at Capita's expense.

Litigation has not been ruled out if performance fails to improve.

Most striking was the minister's openness to bringing the contract back in-house, saying he would insource the operation immediately if he could.

He stopped short, warning that abrupt termination would risk severe disruption to the payroll and a catastrophic operational vacuum.

But he flagged the scheme as a candidate for future insourcing.

That signal, rather than the numbers, explains the market's unease.

Capita has spent recent years rebuilding trust after a long period of contract losses and financial strain.

A high-profile public sector failure threatens to overshadow progress elsewhere in the portfolio.

For the first four months of 2026, the group reported £750 million of total contract value won, up 20% on a year earlier.

For now, there is no sign that reputational damage is denting that momentum.

The risk is that it starts to.