Bitcoin has clawed its way back to $63,000, and the punters on Polymarket think the recovery has a little further to run.
That's a world away from the gloom of a few days earlier. On 1 July, it slipped below $58,000, a 21-month low, capping a miserable June in which it shed roughly 20% in its worst month of the year.
The rebound owes less to anything crypto-specific than to a weak American jobs report, which showed just 57,000 posts added in June and cooled fears that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates again.
Lower rates flatter Bitcoin by reducing the appeal of cash and bonds, and the softer data was enough to spark a scramble among traders who had bet on further falls.
Polymarket, where people wager real money on future events, now puts the odds of Bitcoin touching $65,000 at some point in July at 74%.
Beyond that, the confidence drains away quickly.
The chance of reaching $67,500 sits at 46%, roughly a coin toss, while $70,000 is priced at 24% and $72,500 at just 12%.
A push to $75,000 is rated a 6% shot, and the once-fashionable $100,000 milestone barely registers at around 1%.
That caution chimes with the wider mood on trading desks, where several banks have trimmed their forecasts rather than raised them.
The market has taken a battering this year, falling from an October 2025 record near $126,000 as exchange-traded fund investors pulled money out and rotated into artificial intelligence stocks.
The next test comes at the Fed's meeting on 28 and 29 July.
For now, the crowd is betting on a modest summer bounce, not a return to the old highs.
