Citi expects Informa PLC's (LSE:INF) first-half results to hinge less on the headline numbers than on what management says about its remaining events in the Middle East.
The broker said the key focus when Informa reports, on 30 July, will be commentary on events still scheduled in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, with progress on a peace agreement giving Citi confidence that they will go ahead.
Growth is the open question. Citi said “questions remain” over the extent to which those Middle East events may be affected, even if they proceed as planned.
The five-month update offers a firmer read-through, with B2B Live Events posting underlying revenue growth of 7.6%, which Citi said should be a good indicator for first-half momentum.
Reported numbers are expected to look softer, however, as event rescheduling and foreign exchange headwinds weigh on the period. Citi forecasts group reported growth of around 2% for the first half.
On an underlying basis, Citi expects group growth of 6.5%, slightly ahead of Visible Alpha consensus of 6.2% after adjustment for rebased Academic Markets. It is less positive on profitability, forecasting an adjusted EBIT margin of 26.3% versus consensus at 27.7%.
The broker reduced its FY26 adjusted earnings per share forecast by 2%, leaving it 2% below Visible Alpha consensus.
