Wedbush has initiated coverage of SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) with an 'outperform' rating and a $190 price target, implying 16% upside from Tuesday's close of $163.33, arguing the company is becoming a hyperscaler in its own right rather than just a rocket company.
Dan Ives and his team frame SpaceX as three vertically integrated businesses: Starlink connectivity, Starship launch, and an AI segment built around Colossus compute clusters and the Grok model.
Starlink is doing the heavy lifting on profitability, with roughly 12 million subscribers as of June 5 and average revenue per user of about $66 across its enterprise and consumer base. Wedbush estimates SpaceX still holds less than 1% of the global telecom and broadband market, leaving what it calls "early innings" of penetration.
Capital keeps flowing
The analysts point to SpaceX's roughly $86bn IPO haul, about a fifth of which is earmarked for AI infrastructure, as sufficient funding for the near term while the company works through its debt. Wedbush expects further financing to follow given the scale of the AI ambitions.
Starship as the swing factor
Reusability remains the strategic edge, according to the note, cutting hardware costs while building a flywheel that improves flight rates without a corresponding jump in capital spending. The new Starship models are expected to carry around 60 Starlink satellites per launch, more than double the 27 carried by Falcon 9, which the analysts argue makes the rocket essential not just to the launch business but to the broadband and orbital compute ambitions layered on top of it.
Where the valuation comes from
Wedbush's $190 target is built on a sum-of-the-parts valuation using FY28 estimates, implying roughly $2.48 trillion of enterprise value.
Connectivity is valued at 17 times revenue given its high-margin, recurring subscriber base; AI and compute carry the richest multiple at 22 times, reflecting a contracted compute book with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI worth an annualised run rate of roughly $28bn; and Space carries the lowest multiple at 9 times given its capital intensity and lumpier earnings profile.
The analysts are explicit that this excludes several potential upside drivers, including sub-$200 per kilogram launch economics, orbital data centres, and enterprise AI monetisation, all of which they see as optionality rather than base-case value given the execution hurdles still ahead, including Starship's need to demonstrate orbital delivery, upper-stage catch and in-orbit propellant transfer.
Wedbush's bull case puts the target at $235, its bear case at $135.
