Punters on Polymarket are all but certain that Anthropic's valuation will breach $1 trillion by the end of the year.
The prediction market puts the odds of a valuation topping $1.1 trillion at 97%, and even the $1.25 trillion threshold at 92%, reflecting how firmly a thirteen-figure price tag is now assumed.
The more interesting action sits further up the ladder, where the disagreement actually lives.
A leap to $1.75 trillion is priced at a coin-flip 50%, while $2 trillion is given a 39% chance and $2.5 trillion a still-punchy 32%.
Those are the numbers doing the real work, because they price not whether Anthropic is a giant but how fast it keeps compounding.
The context explains the confidence.
The AI developer's most recent private round in May valued it at $965 billion, already brushing against the trillion-dollar mark.
That funding capped an extraordinary run, with the valuation climbing from around $61 billion in early 2025 through $183 billion, then $380 billion, in barely more than a year.
Underpinning the ascent is a revenue run rate that reached $47 billion, up from $10 billion the previous year, driven largely by its Claude Code agentic coding product.
The market resolves against Anthropic's private valuation as reported by Nasdaq Private Market, so it tracks a real, published figure rather than speculation.
A confidential IPO filing, submitted in June, adds a further catalyst that could crystallise a public valuation before December.
Set against that momentum are the doubts the top-end odds quietly reflect.
Gross margins have reportedly compressed to around 40%, the company is not expected to turn a profit until 2028, and a recent export-control standoff with Washington underlined the political risk hanging over its most capable models.
The downside markets look becalmed, with the probability of slipping below $800 billion languishing at 10%.
For now, the crowd's message is blunt: the trillion is the floor, and the argument is about the ceiling.
